Parameters:		DISTRIBUTION	@RISK FORMULA	EXPECTED	LOWER BOUND (5%)	UPPER BOUND (5%)	NOTES
Government Regulatory Costs
[P1]	Total states with CON, 2008	Constant	37	37	37	37	[a]
[P2]	Average FTE CON employees in states with CON	Truncated Normal	10.2	10.2	5.1	15.3	[b]
[P3]	Annual total compensation, state employees, 2008	Normal	52,058	52,058	39,044	65,073	[c]
Compliance Costs
[P4]	Average spending per CON application, WA, 2013	Constant	124,936	124,936	124,936	124,936	[d]
[P5]	Average annual number of CON applications, WA	Constant	52	52	52	52	[e]
[P6]	Personal health care expenditures (PHCE), WA, 2008 (millions)	Constant	$ 42,411	$ 42,411	$ 42,411	$ 42,411	[f]
[P7]	Percentage change in PHCE, U.S., 2008–2013	Constant	17.9%	17.9%	17.9%	17.9%	[g]
[P8]	CON compliance spending per $10,000 PHCE	Normal	$ 1.29	$ 1.29	$ 0.97	$ 1.61	[h]
[P9]	Personal health care expenditures (PHCE), 2008 (000’s)	Normal	$ 1,997,199	$ 1,997,199	$ 1,964,445	$ 2,029,953	[i]
[P10]	Share of PHCE in states with CON, 2008	Constant	56.6%	56.6%	56.6%	56.6%	[j]
[P11]	PHCE spending in CON states, 2008 (millions)	Calculated	$ 1,130,663	$ 1,130,663	$ 1,112,100	$ 1,149,200	[k]
Key Impacts
Health expenditures
[P12]	Medicare expenditures, 2008 (millions)	Normal	$ 440,758	440,758	$ 433,530	$ 447,987	[l]
[P13]	Share of Medicare spending in states with stringent CON, 2008	Constant	19.2%	19.2%	19.2%	19.2%	[m]
[P14]	Reduction in Medicare/eligible spending due to CON	Normal	1.8%	1.8%	0.5%	3.2%	[n]
[P15]	All other PHCE spending in CON states, 2008 (millions)	Calculated	$ 1,045,988	$ 1,045,988	$ 1027,402	$ 1,064,578	[o]
[P16]	Increase in per capita health spending due to CON	Exponential	0.19%	0.14%	0.01%	0.58%	[p]
[P17]	New CABG programs averted per 1000 CABG patients	Normal	0.97	0.97	0.75	1.19	[q]
[P18]	Capital cost per CABG program (millions)	Normal	$ 20.5	$ 20.5	$ 17.8	$ 23.2	[r]
[P19]	Amortized annual capital cost per CABG program (millions)	Normal	$ 2.0	$ 2.0	$ 1.7	$ 2.2	[s]
Patient time losses
[P20]	Time losses per CABG patient due to restricted supply	Normal	$ 7.50	$ 7.50	$ 3.75	$ 11.25	[t]
[P21]	Total CABGs in states with CON, 2008	Normal	238,586	238,586	131,404	267,020	[u]
General elderly hospital mortality
[P22]	Elderly hospital patients, 2008 (thousands)	Normal	13,902	13,902	11,504	16,300	[v]
[P23]	Elderly in-hospital mortality risk, 2008	Normal	4.1%	4.1%	4.0%	4.2%	[w]
[P24]	Increase in Medicare mortality rates due to stringent CON	Exponential	0.3%	7.9%	6.1%	9.7%	[x]
[P25]	VOSL, elderly, 2008 (millions of dollars)	Triangle	$ 2.9	$ 2.9	$ 0.6	$ 5.9	[y]
CABG mortality, all patients
[P26]	Change in CABG mortality rate/1000 patients due to CON	Calculated	−1.1	−1.1	−2.8	0.6	[z]
[P27]	Added life expectancy per CABG patient	Normal	8.0	8.0	6.0	10.0	[aa]
[P28]	Quality of life, CABG patients after 10 years	Normal	0.9	0.9	0.7	1.1	[ab]
[P29]	Value of a quality-adjusted life year (QALY), 2008 (thousands)	Triangle	$ 239.1	$ 239.1	$ 120.7	$ 407.0	[ac]
CABG mortality, Medicare patients, stringent CON states
[P30]	Elderly CABGs in states with stringent CON, 2008	Normal	43,840	43,840	24,145	49,065	[ad]
[P31]	Change in elderly CABG mortality rate/1000 due to stringent CON	Calculated	−7.3	−7.3	−14.76	0.13	[ae]
[P32]	Ratio of elderly CABG life expectancy to average CABG LE	Constant	0.54	0.54	0.54	0.54	[af]
CABG mortality rates, Medicare patients non-stringent CON states
[P33]	Elderly CABGs in states with CON, 2008	Normal	91,540	91,540	50,417	102,450	[ag]
[P34]	Change in elderly CABG mortality rate/1000 in all CON states	Calculated	−0.9	−0.9	−2.0	0.1	[ah]
[P35]	Change in elderly CABG mortality rate/1000, non-stringent CON	Calculated	4.9	4.9	−5.8	32.9	[ai]
Social Welfare Losses
[P36]	Marginal tax overhead costs, federal taxes	Normal	48.2%	48.2%	38.1%	64.3%	[aj]
[P37]	Marginal tax overhead costs, state taxes	Normal	40.5%	48.2%	32.4%	53.9%	[ak]
[P38]	Marginal excess burden, sales taxes	Normal	23.3%	48.2%	20.4%	26.1%	[al]