TABLE 2.
The scaling of cancer risk from mouse to human and to blue whale assuming different metabolic rate (MR) size corrections: (a) no size effect on the division rate, (b) a size‐related reduction in the division rate (k) defined by C −0.15, and (c) a size‐related reduction of k ∝ C −0.3
| No change versus mouse | Somatic mutation rate | Immune policing of: | Suppression by drivers | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancers | Driver mutations | ||||||||||||
| Lifetime risk | Parameter changes needed for a lifetime risk = 1% Baseline u/"?" probability of target cell escaping added M | ||||||||||||
| (a) No MR correction; k constant. | |||||||||||||
| Colorectal adenocarcinoma (large stem cell population, high division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 3; u = 3.66E−05 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 578 | 7.10E−09 | 1.93E−03 | 11.4 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 8,820 | 2.10E−12 | 1.28E−04 | 17.4 | ||||||||
| Hepatocellular carcinoma (large stem cell population, low division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 2; u = 1.74E−04 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 2,180 | 2.10E−07 | 4.60E−04 | 3.5 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 123,000 | 6.80E−11 | 8.20E−06 | 5.5 | ||||||||
| Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (small stem cell population, intermediate division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 2; u = 3.24E−05 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 2,200 | 2.30E−07 | 4.80E−04 | 6.1 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 124,000 | 7.40E−11 | 8.50E−06 | 9.8 | ||||||||
| (b) MR correction; k varies by C −0.15. | |||||||||||||
| Colorectal adenocarcinoma (large stem cell population, high division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 3; u = 1.10E−05 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 174 | 2.10E−07 | 5.95E−03 | 5.5 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 920 | 1.90E−09 | 1.24E−03 | 5.3 | ||||||||
| Hepatocellular carcinoma (large stem cell population, low division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 2; u = 5.27E−05 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 660 | 2.30E−06 | 1.51E−03 | 2.3 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 3,450 | 7.60E−09 | 8.70E−05 | 2.8 | ||||||||
| Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (small stem cell population, intermediate division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 2; u = 1.32E−05 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 900 | 1.30E−06 | 1.14E−03 | 4.0 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 27,100 | 4.30E−09 | 6.50E−05 | 4.4 | ||||||||
| (C) MR correction; k varies by C −0.3. | |||||||||||||
| Colorectal adenocarcinoma (large stem cell population, high division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 4; u = 1.24E−05 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 27 | 2.2E−06 | 3.8E−02 | 4.9 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 20 | 5.6E−06 | 4.9E−02 | 2.5 | ||||||||
| Hepatocellular carcinoma (large stem cell population, low division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 2; u = 1.58E−05 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 198 | 2.6E−05 | 5.1E−03 | 1.6 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 1,070 | 8.8E−07 | 9.4E−04 | 1.6 | ||||||||
| Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (small stem cell population, intermediate division rate) | |||||||||||||
| Mouse baseline: M = 3; u = 2.28E−05 | |||||||||||||
| Human | 100% | 52 | 7.6E−06 | 2.0E−02 | 4.2 | ||||||||
| Whale | 100% | 77 | 2.3E−06 | 1.3E−02 | 2.6 | ||||||||
The baseline parameters for the mouse (M and u) were calculated as described in the text. The required change in the somatic mutation rate (u) shown is the divisor of the mouse value, for the immune policing it is the probability of a targeted cell escaping (assuming a value of 1.0 for the mouse), and for suppression by drivers, it is the number of extra driver mutations added (relative to the mouse)