Table 5.
Integrated Discrimination Improvement and Net Reclassification Improvement for the Prediction of Ischemic Stroke at 2 and 5 Years
| Cohort | Outcome | Prediction Rule | Relative IDI | 95% CI | Category Free NRI | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adults with no known AF referred for echocardiography (n=84 469) | Ischemic stroke (2 y) | CHA2DS2‐VASc+LA diameter (mm) | 0.99 | 0.17 to 1.66 | 0.40 | 0.23 to 0.54 |
| Ischemic stroke (5 y) | CHA2DS2‐VASc+LA diameter (mm) | 0.50 | 0.27 to 0.72 | 0.43 | 0.31 to 0.54 | |
| Adults with no known AF referred for Holter (n=48 838) | Ischemic stroke (2 y) | CHA2DS2‐VASc+EAE (>30 APBs/h) | 0.21 | 0.03 to 0.61 | 0.31 | 0.18 to 0.46 |
| Ischemic stroke (5 y) | CHA2DS2‐VASc+EAE (>30 APBs/h) | 0.24 | 0.08 to 0.52 | 0.36 | 0.24 to 0.48 | |
| Adults with no known AF referred for both echocardiography and Holter (n=20 370) | Ischemic stroke (2 y) | CHA2DS2‐VASc+LA diameter (mm)+EAE (>30 APBs/h) | 0.91 | 0.52 to 5.78 | 0.46 | 0.14 to 0.80 |
| Ischemic stroke (5 y) | CHA2DS2‐VASc+LA diameter (mm)+EAE (>30 APBs/h) | 0.72 | 0.18 to 2.13 | 0.36 | 0.17 to 0.62 |
Estimates for relative integrated discrimination improvement and category‐free net reclassification improvement with 95% CI with bootstrapping. AF indicates atrial fibrillation; APB, atrial premature beats; EAE, excessive atrial ectopy; IDI, integrated discrimination improvement; LA, left atrial; and NRI, net reclassification improvement.