Table 3.
Multilevel Negative Binomial Regression Model
| b(se) | IRR | |
|---|---|---|
| State variables | ||
| Reasonable/probable cause evidentiary standard | 0.56 (0.15)*** | 1.76 |
| Credible evidentiary standard | 0.12 (0.14) | 1.12 |
| County/Hybrid administration | 0.25 (0.19) | 1.29 |
| Indicated disposition option | −0.54 (0.19)** | 0.58 |
| Breadth of state definitions | −0.05 (0.08) | 0.95 |
| County variables | ||
| Retention | 0.00 (0.01) | 1.00 |
| Workload | −0.05 (0.01)*** | 0.96 |
| Use of alternative response | −0.26 (0.09)** | 0.77 |
| Racial/Ethnic group | ||
| Pct. Black | −0.03 (0.01)* | 0.97 |
| Pct. American Indian | 0.02 (0.01) | 1.02 |
| Pct. Multiracial | −0.02 (0.02) | 0.98 |
| Pct. Asian/Pacific Islander | 0.02 (0.01) | 1.02 |
| Pct. Hispanic | −0.01 (0.01) | 0.99 |
| Age group | ||
| Pct. Under 3 years old | 0.05 (0.01)*** | 1.05 |
| Pct. Ages 11 to 17 | 0.01 (0.01) | 1.01 |
| Referral source | ||
| Pct. Law enforcement | 0.11 (0.02)*** | 1.11 |
| Pct. Education/Child care | 0.02 (0.01) | 1.02 |
| Pct. Other mandatory | 0.07 (0.02)*** | 1.07 |
| Allegation type | ||
| Pct. Physical abuse | −0.09 (0.03)** | 0.91 |
| Pct. Sexual abuse | 0.02 (0.02) | 1.02 |
| Pct. Emotional maltreatment | 0.05 (0.02)* | 1.05 |
| Pct. Multiple forms | −0.02 (0.02) | 0.98 |
| Pct. Other/unknown | −0.04 (0.05) | 0.96 |
| Pct. None | −0.04 (0.02)* | 0.96 |
| Constant | −1.66 (0.23)*** | |
| ln Alpha (dispersion parameter) | −2.54 (0.09)*** | |
| var(_constant, state) | 0.17 (0.05)*** | |
Note: N=2,440 counties. IRR= incidence rate ratio (exponentiated coefficients). Reference group for racial group is % White; reference group for age if % ages 4-10; reference group for referral source is % voluntary, anonymous, or unknown; reference group for allegation type is % neglect.
*
p<.05
**
p<.01
***
p<.001