Table 2.

Study assumptions

	Routine immunization assumption	SARS-CoV-2 immunization assumption	Comments
Vaccines	WHO prequalified vaccines in multidose vial presentation given per WHO recommended schedule.14	SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in multidose vial presentation given as two doses, one month apart.	Given that there are no licensed SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, dose assumptions rely on dose schedule of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine clinical trials in the United States to date, and the volume analyses use packaging volumes per dose of WHO prequalified influenza vaccines as a proxy.
Packaging	Tertiary packaging at the national level Secondary packaging at all subnational levels	Tertiary packaging at national level Secondary packaging at all subnational levels	National level vaccine volume analyses use total tertiary packaging volume required per dose (the unit for international transport), defined as the volume of the container holding cartons which contain vaccine vials divided by the total doses contained. Subnational levels vaccine volume analysis use total secondary packaging volume required per dose, defined as the volume of cartons which contain vaccine vials divided by the total doses contained.
Storage temperature	2° to 8°C	2° to 8°C
Coverage	90% of target group	90% of target group
Target groups	WHO recommended ages	Chronic diseases (any age) Persons ≥ 65 years Healthcare workers	Adults with chronic disease and older adults are at increased risk for severe SARS-CoV-2 disease [7]. Health care workers are at increased risk for SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease [7].
Strategy	Year round	Four month mass vaccination campaign	Once pandemic vaccines are available, there will be an imperative to deliver them expeditiously.
Wastage multidose vials	25%	7.5%	Vaccine wastage is the doses that are lost or unused. Routine immunization inputs are from WHO guidance while SARS-CoV-2 inputs are from WHO Vaccine Wastage Rates Calculator assuming African Region, four weeks of retention of vaccine after vial opened, 2 dose schedule, 90% coverage, daily immunization sessions, and influenza vaccine [23].
Reserve stock	3 months at national level 1 month at district and regional levels 0.5 months at health facility level	No reserve stock	Vaccine reserve stock are the excess supply in case of increased demand or stockouts. Routine inputs are from WHO guidance while SARS-CoV-2 inputs assume high global demand and limited supply [11, 20, 24].
Resupply intervals	3 months at national, district, and regional levels 1 month at health facility level	Every month	Three month supply interval is common for routine immunization in low resource settings [22], while the SARS-CoV-2 supply interval assumes high global demand and limited supply.
Vaccinators	Nurse density per capita for WHO African Region countries multiplied by the simulated country population, the proportion of nurses providing immunization services, and estimates of absenteeism at baseline and during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic	Same as for routine	Typically, persons delivering vaccines in the region are nurses, but not all nurses engage in the provision of immunization services. The estimates for nurses per capita are from WHO [16]. Estimates of percentage of nurses providing immunization services are from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [25]. Absenteeism estimates from observational data (baseline) and modelling data (SARS-CoV-2) from the United States [26, 27].