Table 3.

COVID-19, growth model in the presence of control intervention, and BL test.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centera					Growth model in the presence of control intervention			BL test
Country	The early ascending phase (Dates in 2020)	T	$c$		Growth rate, $\alpha$ (95% C.I)	Deceleration of growth parameter, $r$ (95% C.I)		${\chi }_{stat}^2$	$p$-value
US	02/29 $\sim$04/06	38	1		0.364 (0.355, 0.371)	0.921 (0.917, 0.924)		1.388	0.990
China	01/22 $\sim$02/11	21	17		1.485 (1.453, 1.515)	0.612 (0.609, 0.614)		2.691	0.952
South Korea	02/20 $\sim$03/02	12	1		0.590 (0.521, 0.657)	0.549 (0.535, 0.562)		8.698	0.368
Japan	02/13 $\sim$04/04	52	1		0.140 (0.136, 0.144)	0.773 (0.761, 0.783)		25.166	0.001
UK	03/05 $\sim$04/04	30	1		0.369 (0.363, 0.374)	0.929 (0.926, 0.931)		5.674	0.684
Spain	03/03 $\sim$04/02	31	1		1.021 (1.005, 1.036)	0.774 (0.772, 0.776)		7.101	0.526
Italy	02/21 $\sim$03/26	35	1		0.722 (0.704, 0.739)	0.802 (0.799, 0.805)		3.499	0.899
Germany	03/09 $\sim$04/08	31	2		0.525 (0.515, 0.534)	0.819 (0.815, 0.822)		4.594	0.800
Netherlands	03/06 $\sim$04/07	33	1		0.672 (0.660, 0.682)	0.761 (0.757, 0.764)		5.288	0.726
Sweden	03/11 $\sim$03/27	17	1		0.271 (0.257, 0.286)	0.999 (0.982, 1.018)		7.375	0.497

Note: The early ascending phase is the period between the day when the first death was observed after January 22, 2020 and the day when the number of deaths peaked after January 22, 2020; we used the number of deaths observed in these periods to estimate $\alpha$ and $r$ and conduct the BL test. T denotes the length of the data points. ${\chi }_{stat}^2$ is reduced a chi-squared statistic.

^aData source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/.