TABLE 2.
Benefits (+), costs (−) and net benefits of March‐June UK lockdown; converted to an index of £ billion (b)
| 9% GDP loss | 15% GDP loss | 20% GDP loss | 25% GDP loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lives not lost | ||||
| 440,000 | £75b, ‐£200b, | £75b, ‐£330b, | £75b, ‐£440b, | £75b, ‐£550b, |
| ‐£125b | ‐£255b | ‐£365b | ‐£475b | |
| 200,000 | £34b, ‐£200b, | £34b, ‐£330b, | £34b, ‐£440b, | £34b, ‐£550b, |
| ‐£166b | ‐£296b | ‐£406b | ‐£516b | |
| 100,000 | £17b, ‐£200b, | £17b, ‐£330b, | £17b, ‐£440b, | £17b, ‐£550b, |
| ‐£183b | ‐£313b | ‐£423b | ‐£533b | |
| 50,000 | £9b, ‐£200b, | £9b, ‐£330b, | £9b, ‐£440b, | £9b, ‐£550b, |
| ‐£191b | ‐£321b | ‐£431b | ‐£541b | |
| 20,000 | £3b, ‐£200b, | £3b, ‐£330b, | £3b, ‐£440b, | £3b, ‐£550b, |
| ‐£197b | ‐£327b | ‐£437b | ‐£547b |
5 Quality‐Adjusted Life Years (QALY) is assumed lost for each COVID‐19 death. Each life saved is estimated to result in 5 more quality‐adjusted years of life. The NICE resource threshold of £30,000 is applied to each of these quality‐adjusted years. The further benefits of reduced ICU and ward admission costs and longer‐term life‐shortening residual effects are taken at £20,000 for each life saved. The money value of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses are taken as a proportion of 2019 GDP of £2.2 trillion. All resulting figures are in £ billion.