TABLE 4.
Deaths and costs of deaths under different unlocking scenarios
| From 6th December 2020 | Continue lockdown (0.7) | Ease scenario I (0.9) | Ease scenario II (1) | Ease scenario III (1.15) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 861 | 1107 | 1230 | 1415 |
| Week 2 | 603 | 996 | 1230 | 1627 |
| Week 3 | 422 | 896 | 1230 | 1871 |
| Week 4 | 295 | 806 | 1230 | 2152 |
| Week 5 | 207 | 725 | 1230 | 2475 |
| Week 6 | 145 | 653 | 1230 | 2846 |
| Week 7 | 102 | 588 | 1230 | 3273 |
| Week 8 | 71 | 529 | 1230 | 3764 |
| Week 9 | 50 | 476 | 1230 | 4329 |
| Week 10 | 35 | 428 | 1230 | 4978 |
| Week 11 | 25 | 385 | 1230 | 5725 |
| Week 12 | 18 | 347 | 1230 | 6584 |
| Week 13 | 13 | 312 | 1230 | 7572 |
| Total expected deaths | 2847 | 8248 | 15,990 | 48,611 |
| Additional expected deaths compared to continue lockdown | 5401 | 13,143 | 45,764 | |
| Cost of easing (£ billions)—each add. death = 5 QALY valued at £30,000 | £0.92 | £2.23 | £7.786 | |
| Cost of easing (£ billions)—each add. death = 10 QALY valued at £30,000 | £1.73 | £4.21 | £14.64 | |
Deaths are assumed to evolve week by week from the level in the week ending 12 June (1230) by a factor 0.7; 0.9; 1.0; 1.15 for the lockdown and scenarios I, ii and ii, respectively. Benefits of lived saved include £20,000 per life saved for lower medical costs as well as the value of QALYs saved.