TABLE 2.
Exponential growth model and signs of early containment
| Country | Number of time periods, n | Coefficient a | Coefficient b | Standardized coefficient β | F value | R 2 | Lower than predicted/sign of early containment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | 31 | 1.302 | 0.337 | 0.991*** | 781.241 | 0.982 | YES |
| Brazil | 30 | 0.481 | 0.291 | 0.978*** | 303.991 | 0.956 | NO |
| Canada | 61 | 1.176 | 0.128 | 0.937*** | 101.457 | 0.879 | NO |
| Chile | 24 | 0.750 | 0.366 | 0.991*** | 758.273 | 0.982 | YES |
| China | 65 | 490.301 | 0.283 | 0.986*** | 498.685 | 0.973 | YES |
| Czechia | 26 | 2.093 | 0.319 | 0.995*** | 1,332.385 | 0.990 | YES |
| Denmark | 29 | 0.452 | 0.456 | 0.984*** | 413.802 | 0.967 | YES |
| Ecuador | 26 | 5.807 | 0.104 | 0.955*** | 144.175 | 0.911 | NO |
| France | 63 | 2.484 | 0.078 | 0.907*** | 64.943 | 0.823 | NO |
| Germany | 60 | 2.548 | 0.135 | 0.863*** | 40.822 | 0.745 | NO |
| Greece | 30 | 1.266 | 0.305 | 0.971*** | 234.059 | 0.944 | YES |
| Iceland | 28 | 1.540 | 0.324 | 0.937*** | 100.483 | 0.878 | YES |
| India | 57 | 1.331 | 0.068 | 0.737** | 16.614 | 0.543 | NO |
| Indonesia | 25 | 0.818 | 0.349 | 0.981*** | 360.233 | 0.963 | YES |
| Iran | 37 | 2.963 | 0.474 | 0.989*** | 621.521 | 0.978 | YES |
| Ireland | 27 | 0.691 | 0.347 | 0. 976*** | 277.177 | 0.952 | YES |
| Israel | 35 | 0.450 | 0.280 | 0.981*** | 349.631 | 0.961 | YES |
| Italy | 56 | 1.826 | 0.038 | 0.861*** | 40.091 | 0.741 | NO |
| Japan | 65 | 1.106 | 0.229 | 0.968*** | 206.096 | 0.936 | YES |
| Luxembourg | 27 | 0.314 | 0.295 | 0.938*** | 102.131 | 0.879 | NO |
| Malaysia | 62 | 3.259 | 0.103 | 0.959*** | 160.352 | 0.920 | NO |
| Netherlands | 29 | 1.341 | 0.441 | 0.968*** | 207.786 | 0.937 | YES |
| Norway | 30 | 1.436 | 0.411 | 0.969*** | 216.713 | 0.939 | YES |
| Pakistan | 30 | 1.628 | 0.141 | 0.931*** | 91.720 | 0.868 | NO |
| Panama | 17 | 4.036 | 0.320 | 0.942*** | 110.033 | 0.887 | NO |
| Peru | 21 | 1.119 | 0.375 | 0.980*** | 347.076 | 0.961 | YES |
| Philippines | 57 | 1.109 | 0.078 | 0.879*** | 47.546 | 0.773 | NO |
| Poland | 23 | 1.107 | 0.389 | 0.980*** | 347.425 | 0.961 | YES |
| Portugal | 25 | 1.693 | 0.354 | 0.990*** | 720.564 | 0.981 | YES |
| Qatar | 27 | 0.794 | 0.394 | 0.952*** | 134.907 | 0.906 | YES |
| Republic of Korea | 65 | 0.880 | 0.215 | 0.977*** | 289.019 | 0.954 | YES |
| Romania | 30 | 0.787 | 0.244 | 0.972*** | 241.849 | 0.945 | NO |
| Saudi Arabia | 25 | 0.659 | 0.368 | 0.983*** | 394.381 | 0.966 | YES |
| Singapore | 64 | 1.681 | 0.202 | 0.968*** | 206.524 | 0.937 | YES |
| Slovenia | 22 | 3.721 | 0.330 | 0.954*** | 141.131 | 0.910 | YES |
| South Africa | 22 | 0.600 | 0.381 | 0.987*** | 520.753 | 0.974 | YES |
| Spain | 55 | 0.812 | 0.065 | 0.868*** | 42.667 | 0.753 | NO |
| Switzerland | 31 | 1.404 | 0.421 | 0.969*** | 215.328 | 0.939 | YES |
| Thailand | 65 | 3.113 | 0.152 | 0.935*** | 97.258 | 0.874 | YES |
| UK | 56 | 1.213 | 0.132 | 0.914*** | 71.525 | 0.836 | NO |
| Turkey | 61 | 0.644 | 0.573 | 0.982*** | 370.097 | 0.964 | NO |
| USA a | 31 | 526.875 | 0.293 | 0.996*** | 1749.121 | 0.992 | NO |
Dataset time period – 22 January to 26 March 2020.
a
Data from onset not available.
*
p < .05.
**
p < .01.
***
p < .001.