Table 1.

Adjusted Change [95% CI] in COVID-19 Deaths over the Next 7 Days, Including Present Day (Days 0 to 6)

	Model 1 (base)	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5	Model 6	Model 7
COVID-19 ICU use*	2.84 [0.6, 5]	2.71 [0.4, 5]	1.79 [0.7, 2.9]	2.48 [1.3, 3.7]	2.46 [1.3, 3.6]	2.99 [0.7, 5.3]	3.31 [0.9, 5.7]
COVID-19 non-ICU use*	17.84 [11.1, 24.6]	17.23 [10.1, 24.4]	18.89 [12.3, 25.5]	6.15 [2.2, 10.1]	6.41 [2.7, 10.2]	17.81 [11, 24.6]	17.37 [10.7, 24.1]
3-day lags of COVID-19 ICU use	Yes	Yes	No	No	No	Yes	Yes
3-day lags of COVID-19 non-ICU use	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes
Cumulative # of cases	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Cases in days 0 to −6	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
Week of year indicators	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Day of week indicators	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
State indicators	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	GEE	GEE	GEE	GEE	GEE	GEE	GEE
Specification	Log link Neg Bin	Log link Neg Bin	Log link Neg Bin	Log link Neg Bin	Log link Neg Bin	Log link Neg Bin	Log link Neg Bin
N	1056	1062	1056	1118	1131	1056	1056
# Of states	23	23	23	23	23	23	23
Error correlation	AR1	AR1	AR1	AR1	AR1	AR2	AR3
Standard errors	Robust	Robust	Robust	Robust	Robust	Robust	Robust

Notes: In our analysis sample, mean (SD, 25th percentile–75th percentile) of key variables were the following: COVID-19 ICU use was 19.6 (19.22, 7.8–22.1); COVID-19 non-ICU use was 5.5 (6.3, 1.5–8.8); total ICU bed capacity, 1678 (1677, 643–1891); total non-ICU bed capacity, 12,978 (12,418, 5581–15,462); COVID-19 deaths over the next 7 days, 234 (358, 40–276)

Minimum number of days of data contributed by a state was 6. Maximum number was 65

GEE, generalized estimating equation; AR1, autoregressive one-error structure (also known as first-order autoregressive process); AR2 and AR3 are similarly defined

*The ICU use was calculated as the number of current ICU patients with COVID-19 and then expressed as a percentage of the total ICU beds of that state. The non-ICU use was calculated similarly