. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2020 Aug 21.

Published in final edited form as: J Transp Health. 2019 May 3;13:200–209. doi: 10.1016/j.jth.2019.04.003

Table 3.

Upper and lower bounds for HEAT model user inputs and model calculations for T2.

	T2 Lower bounds 08/01/2015 – 07/31/2016	T2 Upper bounds 08/01/2015 – 07/31/2016
User Inputs
Amount cycled per person per day (minutes)	3.843	3.843
Cyclist population	96,142	96,142
Temporal and spatial adjustment (percent)	0	0
Proportion of cycling in traffic (percent)	75	25
Proportion of cycling for transport (percent)	25	75
Cycling as substitution of physical activity (percent)	50	0
Value of a statistical life (USD)	$9,200,000	$9,200,000
Crude all-cause mortality rate per 100,000 population	126.47	210.79
PM_2.5 concentration (micrograms per cubic meter)	11.95	7.17
Cyclist fatalities per 100 million kilometers cycled	2.970	1.782
Relative risk of all-cause mortality among cyclists compared to non-cyclists	0.899	0.899
Model Calculations
Relative risk between all-cause mortality per 10 micrograms per cubic meter increase in PM_2.5 among cyclists compared to non-cyclists	1.07	1.07
Number of premature deaths prevented per year	1	5
Estimated annual mortality impact value (USD)	$12,600,000	$49,200,000

Italicized user inputs were varied by plus or minus 25%.