Table 3.

C-indices

	Binary outcome C (AUC)	Dynamic C
	Observed (predicted)*	Observed†
Composite outcome‡ (1115 events)
SP only	0.711 (0.707)	0.640
The 10 newer markers and SP	0.732 (0.732)	0.657
log(hs-cTnT/ng/L)+log(pro-BNP/ng/L)+SP	0.730 (0.730)	0.656
All-cause death (644 deaths)
SP only	0.792 (0.793)	0.737
The 10 newer markers and SP	0.824 (0.816)	0.765
log(hs-cTnT/ng/L)+log(pro-BNP/ng/L)+SP	0.821 (0.813)	0.762

Cox model estimates applied to the 0–9 years follow-up window (n=1998).

*The ‘observed’ AUCs summarise a ROC plot of cumulative events against cumulative non-events, with cumulation from large to small estimated risks. The corresponding ‘predicted’ AUC cumulates the predicted risks instead. Discrepancies between the two curves would suggest a model failure (calibration problems). The curves (not shown) were practically identical.

†Analogous concordance rate between time to event and predicted risk.

‡Composite outcome: first occurrence of acute myocardial infarction, unstable angina pectoris, cerebrovascular disease or death (table 1.

AUC, area under the curve; hs-cTnT, high-sensitive assay cardiac troponin T; ROC, receiver operating characteristics; SP, standard predictors.