Table 6.

Ex-ante and ex-post methods for financial incentives effectiveness.

Evaluation	Approach	Method	Advantage	Drawbacks	Ref.
Ex-post	Top-down approach	Aggregation of different indicators in achieving target is made by assuming that the amount of energy efficiency is constant over period of evaluation. The amount of energy used with application of instruments is compared with energy efficiency baseline and gives the energy saved	Less time consuming	Not possible to assess impact of individual instruments	[11,161]
	Bottom-up Approach	Effects of individual instruments are assessed to determine the impact on energy target achievement	Easy to identify the performance of individual instrument in kWh, GJ etc.	Difficult evaluation in case of instruments assigned in packages	[11,161]
	Combination of Top-down and Bottom-up Approach	Two methods (Top-down and Bottom-up Approach) are combined to assess the impact on energy targets	Weaknesses of top-down and bottom approach methods are covered.		[11,162]
	Econometric Modelling	Based on statistical analysis of factors that can potentially affect the instrument evaluation. Panel Data Model, diffusion model are examples of econometric models commonly used in effectiveness studies	Useful for evaluation of taxes	Does not indicate the cause of poor performance of instrument	[11,108,146,147,163]
	Policy Theory	Complementary method to top-down, bottom up and econometric modelling with particular emphasis on bottom up approaches Policy Theory is also called Logic Model Analysis, Intervention Theory, Theory-Based Approach, Realistic Evaluation Theory or Program Theory	A comprehensive evaluation of the whole policy implementation process. Easy to identify factors impacting success or failure of incentive.		[11,164]
Ex-ante	Forecasting (Energy Economy Models)	Energy-economy models are developed based on robust economic and engineering principles and determine impacts of FIs on the energy savings or reduction in carbon emissions. Four main methods are used for generating these models: (1) (Market) Simulation (2) Optimization (3) Accounting (4) Hybrid Models Several models are developed and extensively used depending upon the evaluation goal. Examples of some of these methods are: Canadian Integrated Modelling System (CIMS) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) MARKet Allocation (MARKAL)	Capable of identifying best combination of energy efficiency improvements needed under cost and time constraints CIMS hybrid energy-economy model capable of determining interaction between energy supply and macroeconomic performance NEMS model provides long term projections of energy technologies based on operating and investment costs LEAP is capable of analyzing both economic and environmental impacts MARKAL is a bottom up energy based model can determine evolution of end-use energy systems	Can be restricted to a specific region and sector CIM model is specifically designed for assessing impacts in Canada and is focused on energy users and energy supply and industries. NEMS is focused on US domestic sector MARKAL is focused for EU energy systems	[[153], [154], [155], [156], [157]]
	Backcasting Analysis	A future can be achieved by exploring scenarios that give desired target	The process involves methodological steps that have sequenced order that varies with specific backcasting approach	Conventional backcasting method is applicable to long term analysis only	[158,159]