Fig. 2.

(A) Comparison of the results of our DiD model that ignores spillovers and estimates the effect of a policy on its “own county” and our DiD model that includes geographic spillovers and separates the effects of a policy on its own county (“own county [acc. for geo]”) from the effects of the policies of geographically connected counties (“Geographic alters”). For both the fraction of devices leaving home and the number of locations visited, the geographic spillovers are approximately equal in magnitude to the direct effects of ego county shelter-in-place policies. (B) The results of a county-level dyadic DiD model using either all county pairs or only adjacent county pairs. When only an “origin” county implements a shelter-in-place policy, outbound travel to the destination county increases. Only when either the destination county or both counties implement shelter-in-place does travel to the destination county decrease. (C) Comparison of our estimates of the direct effect of shelter-in-place, as well as the spillover effects of other states’ shelter-in-place policies, with and without accounting for social spillovers. When we account for social spillovers, the magnitude of our spillover estimates increases by over a factor of 2.