TABLE 4.

Sensitivity, Specificity, and Positive Predicted Value (PPV) by Various Threshold of Predicted Risks (Model 3 Only)

	Sensitivity, %				Specificity, %				PPV, %
	Threshold				Threshold				Threshold
	5	10	20	30	5	10	20	30	5	10	20	30
One year	88.1	73.5	51.4	36.2	57.6	78.8	90.9	95.4	17.3	25.9	36.3	44.2
Two years	90.5	74.3	53.5	38.6	53.4	76.5	90.2	95.1	17.2	25.6	36.7	44.7
Three years	89.7	75.4	53.3	37.8	52.1	75.6	89.9	94.9	17.3	25.6	37.1	45.3

Percent of eligible patients whose risk was above each risk threshold:

One year: 5% threshold: 46.6%; 10% threshold: 26.0%; 20% threshold: 13.0%; 30% threshold: 7.5%.

Two year: 5% threshold: 50.8%; 10% threshold: 28.5%; 20% threshold: 13.9%; 30% threshold: 8.0%.

Three year: 5% threshold: 52.1%; 10% threshold: 29.5%; 20% threshold: 14.4%; 30% threshold: 8.4%.