Table 1.
Unit Root Test and ARIMA results for number of cases.
| Groups | ADF | Possible forms of ARIMA | Regression Co-effs. (Prob) | Ṝ2 | AIC | SIC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | -11.4 (0.00) I(2) |
(1,2,1) | AR(1) = -0.14 (0.15) MA(1) = -0.66(0.00) |
0.40 | 21.17 | 21.23 |
| (7,2,1) | AR(7) = -0.18 (0.02) MA(1) = -0.72(0.00) |
0.41 | 21.19 | 21.25 | ||
| (8, 2, 1) | AR(8) = 0.20(0.01) MA(1) = -0.74(0.00) |
0.42 | 21.18 | 21.24 | ||
| (9,2,1) |
AR(9) = -0.25(0.00) MA(1) = -0.70(0.00) |
0.43 | 21.17 | 21.23 | ||
| (13,2,12) | AR(13) = -0.27(0.00) MA(12) = 0.14(0.12) |
0.12 | 21.62 | 21.68 | ||
| UK | -3.91(0.00) I(1) |
(1,1,1) |
AR(1) = 0.97 (0.00) MA(1) = -0.83 (0.00) |
0.32 | 18.56 | 18.62 |
| (2, 1, 1) | AR(2) = 0.32(0.00) MA(1) = 0.28 (0.00) |
0.19 | 18.74 | 18.79 | ||
| (1,1,2) | AR(1) = 0.32(0.00) MA(2) = 0.16(0.04) |
0.17 | 18.75 | 18.81 | ||
| (8,1,1) | AR(8) = 0.29(0.00) MA(1) = 0.19(0.01) |
0.16 | 18.80 | 18.85 | ||
| Italy | -2.49(0.01) I(2) No intercept and trend |
(1,2,1) | AR(1) = -0.16 (0.47) MA(1) = -0.16 (0.46) |
0.10 | 15.16 | 15.21 |
| (7,2,1) |
AR(7) =-0.38 (0.00) MA(1) = -0.46(0.00) |
0.20 | 15.06 | 15.12 | ||
| (1,2,7) | AR(1) = -0.43 (0.00) MA(7) = 0.31 (0.00) |
0.18 | 15.05 | 15.11 | ||
| (1,2,8) | AR(1) = -0.36 (0.00) MA(8) = -0.21 (0.00) |
0.12 | 15.12 | 15.18 | ||
| Spain | -12.05(0.00) I(2) |
(1,2,1) | AR(1) = 0.22 (0.07) MA(1) = -0.72 (0.00) |
0.20 | 17.47 | 17.53 |
| (1,2,2) | AR(1) = -0.48 (0.00) MA(2) = -0.43(0.00) |
0.21 | 17.46 | 17.52 | ||
| (2,2,1) |
AR(2) = -0.24 (0.00) MA(1) = -0.50 (0.00) |
0.22 | 17.45 | 17.51 | ||
| (2,2,2) | AR(2) = -0.43(0.14) MA(2) = 0.22(0.48) |
0.04 | 17.66 | 17.71 | ||
| France | -13.05(0.00) I(2) |
(1,2,1) |
AR(1) = -0.13 (0.21) MA(1) = -0.66 (0.00) |
0.38 | 16.32 | 16.37 |
| (1,2,2) | AR(1) = -0.70 (0.00) MA(2) = -0.50 (0.00) |
0.38 | 16.33 | 16.37 | ||
| China | -6.05(0.00) I(0) |
(1,0,1) | AR(1) = 0.96(0.00) MA(1) = 0.14(0.05) |
0.99 | 17.48 | 17.54 |
| (1,0,28) |
AR(1) = 0.92(0.00) MA(28) = 0.99(0.00) |
0.99 | 12.71 | 12.76 | ||
| India | -13.57(0.00) I(2) |
(1,2,1) | AR(1) = 0.03(0.79) MA(1) = -0.57(0.00) |
0.21 | 17.16 | 17.22 |
| (1,2,2) |
AR(1) = -0.52(0.00) MA(2) = -0.32(0.00) |
0.21 | 17.16 | 17.22 | ||
| (1,2,7) | AR(1) = -0.39(0.00) MA(7) = 0.08(0.29) |
0.14 | 17.24 | 17.30 |
Note: Bold marks indicate significant results and the accepted ARIMA structures for which forecasting are made.
Source: Computed by the author