Table 1.

Data used for nonmedical exemptions, medical exemptions, and exempt from requirements for kindergarteners and seventh graders in each scenario.

	Base*		SB276+		No SB277$
	20152−2018	2019−2027	2015−2018	2019−2027	2015−2018	2019−2027
Nonmedical Exemptions	Observed	0%	Observed	0%	Average of 2014−2015	Average of 2014−2015
Medical Exemptions	Observed	2018 rate	Observed	2019 (2018 rate) 2020−2027 (0.2%)	Average of 2009−2018	Average of 2009−2018
Exempt from Requirements	Observed	2018 rate	Observed	2018 rate	0%	0%

^*We assumed students with pre-SB277 nonmedical exemptions would retain them until reaching seventh grade or graduation. Students were assigned a 0% nonmedical exemption rate after 2017. The most recent rates of medical exemptions and exempt from requirements for kindergarteners (0.87% and 1.50%, respectively) and seventh graders (0.42% and 0.88%, respectively) were used to estimate the number of students with either exemption type entering those grades after 2018.

⁺We assumed SB276 would be implemented in 2020; for 2019, we used the medical exemption rates in 2018. All medical exemptions obtained prior to 2020 would be “grandfathered,” per the most recent modification of SB276. For students exempt from requirements, we used current rates for future years in this scenario.

^$We used the 2014–2015 average nonmedical exemption rate for kindergarteners (2.46%) and seventh graders (1.87%) after 2015 because Assembly Bill 2109 reduced the nonmedical exemption rate from its pre-2014 level (4). For medical exemptions, the 10-year average rate prior to SB277 was used for kindergarteners (0.18%) and seventh graders (0.16%) entering those grades after 2015. Students exempt from requirements were not included because this provision was created by SB277