Table 2.
Calibration of analyzed indices by comparison of their death-risk strata classification predictions, and observed mortality in a cohort of nursing home residents with COVID-19 in Seville, Spain.
| INDEX | PREDICTED DEATH-RISK ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED BY AUTHORS (%) | PREDICTED DEATH-RISK OBTAINED IN THE PRESENT COHORT (95% CI)# | OBSERVED MORTALITY | HOSMER-LEMESHOV TEST: Chi square test (degrees of freedom) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlson index | 2.19 (4) | |||
| 0 points | 12 % | 21.5 % | 14 (22.6 %) | p = .51 |
| 1−2 points | 26 % | 22 % | 23 (19.5 %) | |
| 3−4 points | 52 % | 23 % | 15 (28.3 %) | |
| 5 or more points | 85 % | 24.3 % (24−24.7%) | 9 (29.1 %) | |
| Charlson index adjusted by age | 1.85 (6) | |||
| 0 points | 12 % | -- | 0 (of no patients) | p = .34 |
| 1−2 points | 26 % | 17.7 % | 0 of 5 patients | |
| 3−4 points | 52 % | 19.5 % (19.4−19.6%) | 12 (19.7 %) | |
| 5 or more points | 85 % | 23.4 % (23−23.8%) | 49 (23.8 %) | |
| PROFUND index | 9.72 (7) | |||
| Low risk (0−2 points) | 12.1−14.6% | 8.3 % (8−8.7%) | 2 (7.4 %) | p = .3 |
| Low-intermediate risk (3−6 points) | 21.5−31.5% | 13.3 % (13−13.7%) | 10 (12.3 %) | |
| Intermediate-high risk (7−10 points) | 45−50% | 21.7 % (21.3−22%) | 17 (28 %) | |
| High risk (11−30 points) | 68−61.3% | 36 % (34.3−37%) | 32 (36.8 %) | |
| CURB-65 index | 18.62 (3) | |||
| 0 points | 0.7 % | 2.6 % | 0 of 8 patients | p = .015 |
| 1 point | 1.3 % | 8% | 7 (5%) | |
| 2 points | 3% | 22.5 % | 23 (36.5 %) | |
| 3 points | 17 % | 49 % | 16 (40 %) | |
| 4 points | 41.5 % | 76 % | 12 (70.6 %) | |
| 5 points | 57 % | 91 % | 2 (100 %) | |
| ACP index | .05 (1) | |||
| Grade 1 (0 points) | 0 | 1.8% | 0 of 1patient | p = .892 |
| Grade 1 (1 points) | 5.6 % | 7.6 % | 5 (7.7 %) | |
| Grade 2 (2 points) | 33.2 % | 27 % | 56 (27.2 %) | |
| Shi et al index* | 1.99 (1) | |||
| 0 points | 0 | -- | 0 (of no patients) | p = .275 |
| 1 point | 5.7 % | 17 % | 13 (21.3 %) | |
| 2 points | 19 % | 22.3 % | 30 (19.1 %) | |
| 3 points | 40 % | 28.6 % | 18 (33.3 %) |
CI: Confidence Interval; #Obtained by logistic regression modeling; ¶These indices assess 12-month death risk; *This index assesses risk to develop severe cases.