Table 1. Viral kinetics and transmission events description and predicted from viral kinetic model coupled to the Bayesian logistic regression prediction.
For quantitative variables: mean ±se [range], for qualitative variables: number or percentage. Dpi stands for days post inoculation and dpc for days post contact. Predictions: 100 replicates of 11 pigs datasets: average of replicates mean, {5th-95th percentiles of replicates mean}—Not observed; * estimated for 21 donors; ** estimated for the 11 donors in contact with recipients; £: estimated for 41 infected recipients.† fixed in the model.
| Observed | Predicted (100 replicates) | Relative Bias (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pig type | Seeders | Donors | Recipients | Donors | |
| Number of pigs | 24 | 21 | 88 | 11† | |
| Exposed animals who become infected–% | 100 | 100 | 47 | 85.8 {72.7–100} | -14.2 |
| Latent period (dpi/dpc) | <1 | 2.54±0.28 [1.00–6.25] | 3.22 [1.00–6.00]£ | 2.20 {1.49–2.70} | -15.4 |
| * Time to last detected virus titre (dpc) | - | 7.05±0.28 [5.00–8.25] | - | 7.52 {6.56–8.76} | +6.7 |
| *Duration of shedding (days) | - | 4.51±0.31 [1.25–7.00] | - | 5.33 {4.19–6.88} | +18.2 |
| *Time to maximal shed virus titre: Tmax (dpc) | - | 4.51±0.32[2.00–8.00] | - | 4.43 {3.81–5.20} | -1.8 |
| *Maximal shed virus titre: Vmax (log10 pfu/mL) | - | 4.58±0.29 [1.81–6.54] | - | 5.49 {4.27–6.97} | +19.9 |
| * Generation time: Tg (days) | - | 4.62±0.26 [2.73–7.42] | - | 4.17 {3.56–4.75} | -9.7 |
| **Time to 1st transmission event (dpc) | - | 2.27±0.33 [1.00–4.00] | - | 1.85{0–5.23} | -18.5 |
| **Transmission period (days) | - | 3.91±0.49 [1.00–6.00] | - | 3.54 {0–6.00} | -9.5 |
| **Number of transmission events | - | 3.73±0.49 [1.00–6.00] | - | 4.13{1.00–9.30} | +10.7 |
| *Onset of antibody production (dpc) | - | 7.84±0.12 [7.00–9.00] | - | 7.55 {7.18–8.09} | -3.7 |