Table 1.

Some predictions about hospital bed needs and their rebuttal by reality: examples from news coverage of some influential forecasts.

State	Prediction made	What happened
New York (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/ nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-hospitals.html and https://www.forbes.com/sites/sethcohen/2020/05/26/we-all-failed--the-real-reason-behind-ny-governor-andrew-cuomos-surprising-confession/#3e700be06fa5)	“Sophisticated scientists, Mr. Cuomo said, had studied the coming coronavirus outbreak and their projections were alarming. Infections were doubling nearly every three days and the state would soon require an unthinkable expansion of its health care system. To stave off a catastrophe, New York might need up to 140,000 hospital beds and as many as 40,000 intensive care units with ventilators.” $4/10/2020$	“But the number of intensive care beds being used declined for the first time in the crisis, to 4,908, according to daily figures released on Friday. And the total number hospitalized with the virus, 18,569, was far lower than the darkest expectations.” $4/10/2020$ “Here’s my projection model. Here’s my projection model. They were all wrong. They were all wrong.” Governor Andrew Cuomo $5/25/2020$
Tennessee (https://www.nashvillepost.com/business/health-care/article/21127025/covid19-update-hospitalization-projections-drop and https://www.tennessean.com/story/money/industries/health-care/2020/06/04/tennessee-hospitals-expected-lose-3-5-billion-end-june/3139003001/)	“Last Friday, the model suggested Tennessee would see the peak of the pandemic on about April 19 and would need an estimated 15,500 inpatient beds, 2,500 ICU beds and nearly 2,000 ventilators to keep COVID-19 patients alive.”	“Now, it is projecting the peak to come four days earlier and that the state will need 1,232 inpatients beds, 245 ICU beds and 208 ventilators. Those numbers are all well below the state’s current health care capacity.” “Hospitals across the state will lose an estimated $3.5 billion in revenue by the end of June because of limitations on surgeries and a dramatic decrease in patients during the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from the Tennessee Hospital Association.” $6/4/2020$
California ( https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article241621891.html and https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-opinion-hospitals-beds-non-covid-patients.html)	“In California alone, at least 1.2 million people over the age of 18 are projected to need hospitalization from the disease, according to an analysis published March 17 by the Harvard Global Health Institute and the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health… California needs 50,000 additional hospital beds to meet the incoming surge of coronavirus patients, Gov. Gavin Newsom said last week.”	“In our home state of California, for example, COVID-19 patients occupy fewer than two in 10 ICU beds, and the growth in COVID-19-related utilization, thankfully, seems to be flattening out. California’s picture is even sunnier when it comes to general hospital beds. Well under five percent are occupied by COVID-19 patients.”