Table 5.

CAG‐TCF: Consensus judgements and distribution of the experts for the combined impact of the quantified uncertainties affecting exposure (if resolved) on the MOET at the 99.9th percentile of exposure for the German adult population in 2014–2016. The impact is expressed as a multiplicative factor f to be applied to the Tier II median estimate (shown in Table 1A). The bottom row of the table gives the parameters for the consensus distribution, which is shown graphically in Figure 3

	Experts’ exposure multiplicative factor (f)
Lower plausible bound	f = 0.5 (experts judged there to be < 1% probability that f would be < 0.5)
Upper plausible bound	f = 3 (experts judged there to be < 1% probability that f would be > 3)
Probability 1	p (f < 1) = 10% (experts’ probability that f would be less than 1)
Probability 2	p (f > 2) = 25% (experts’ probability that f would be more than 2)
Probability 3	p (f > 1.5) = 55% (experts’ probability that f would be more than 1.5)
Consensus distribution	Gamma distribution with shape 3.84 and rate 3.28, offset to start from 0.5 (the experts’ lower plausible bound) instead of 0.0