Table 12.
CAG‐TCP: Results of EKE Question 3. The central five columns give the calculated % probability that the MOET for the 99th percentile of exposure for each population in 2014–2016 is below 100 assuming no dependence (column 2) or varying degrees of dependence between the experts’ assessments of uncertainties relating to exposure and toxicology, i.e. between the distributions in Figures 6 and 7 above. The degree of dependency is shown as a correlation coefficient (Corr.). The right hand column shows the consensus judgement of the experts for the probability that the MOET for the 99th percentile of exposure for each population in 2014–2016 is below 100, taking into account both dependencies and differences in uncertainties between populations
| Population | Q2 probability assuming independence (%) | Q2 probability with negative dependency | Q2 probability with positive dependency | Consensus probability for Q3, including dependency and population differences | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corr. −1 | Corr. −0.25 | Corr. +1 | Corr. +0.25 | |||
| Belgian adults | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| Czech Rep. adults | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| German adults | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| Italian adults | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| Bulgarian children | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| French children | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| Dutch children | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| Danish toddlers | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| Dutch toddlers | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |
| United Kingdom toddlers | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | < 1% |