Table 3.

Log probability of the data given the model (marginal likelihood, based on the Bezier approximation score) and corresponding Bayes factors. The most probable model considers the north to south model

Model	Log (marginal likelihood)	Log (Bayes factor)	Model-probability
1: Adjacent	−497,724	−12,043.2	0
2: full migration	− 488,997	− 3315.64	0
3: north to south	− 485,681	0	1
4: south to north	−488,612	− 2930.91	0
5: Panmixia	−494,664	− 8983.39	0