Table 2.

Final size (in total cases) for different effectiveness of the containment measures, and reduction factor depending on the anticipation time ($r_a=1.8$, $R_a=57000$,${\lambda }_a=0.14{\text{days}}^{-1}$).

E	r	$R_{final}=\frac{(r_a-r)}{(1-r)}{R}_a$	$\Delta t$ (days)	$\exp (-{\lambda }_a\Delta t)$
65%	0.88	437,000	1	87%
70%	0.75	239,000	4	57%
80%	0.50	148,000	7	38%
100%	0	103,000	10	25%
68%	0.81	297,000