Table 6.
Lockdown effects on the daily growth in COVID-19 cases by subsample and definition of dependent variable (fixed-effects panel model)
| Variables | Model 3 | Only even days | Only odd days | No Lombard provinces | No provinces listed in the Prime Ministerial Decree of March 8, 2020 | COVID-19 cases per every 10,000 inhabitants | No Lombard provinces and COVID-19 cases per every 10,000 inhabitants | No provinces listed in the Decree of March 8, 2020, and COVID-19 cases per every 10,000 inhabitants |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |
| COVID-19 casest-1 | 0.125*** | 0.129*** | 0.121*** | 0.115*** | 0.126*** | 0.069*** | 0.081*** | 0.113*** |
| LD1 * COVID-19 casest-1 | − 0.058*** | − 0.060*** | − 0.056*** | − 0.055*** | − 0.068*** | − 0.038*** | − 0.052*** | − 0.080*** |
| LD2 * COVID-19 casest-1 | − 0.027*** | − 0.024*** | − 0.029*** | − 0.024*** | − 0.021*** | − 0.019*** | − 0.022*** | − 0.023*** |
| LD3 * COVID-19 casest-1 | − 0.012*** | − 0.012*** | − 0.013*** | − 0.018*** | − 0.025*** | − 0.007** | − 0.015*** | − 0.021*** |
| Number of deaths | 0.011 | − 0.029 | 0.054 | 0.149** | 0.246*** | 0.05 | 0.206** | 0.295** |
| Number of recovered | − 0.052** | − 0.047* | − 0.059*** | − 0.056*** | − 0.056*** | − 0.019 | − 0.018 | − 0.019 |
| Constant | 0.178 | 0.172 | 1.979 | 0.367 | 0.105 | 0.008 | 0.01 | 0.004 |
| Time dummies | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Observations | 6313 | 3210 | 3103 | 5605 | 4779 | 6313 | 5605 | 4779 |
| R-squared | 0.463 | 0.461 | 0.475 | 0.391 | 0.410 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.210 |
| Number of provinces | 107 | 107 | 107 | 95 | 81 | 107 | 95 | 81 |
Standard errors are clustered by Italian province. ***p < 0.01, **p < 0.05, *p < 0.1. Column 6 replicates estimates in Model 3 but all COVID-19 cases are considered in relative terms with respect to the provincial population. Specifically, both the dependent variable and the “COVID-19 cases at time t-1” variable are divided by the number of inhabitants at the provincial level and then multiplied by 10,000. Column 7 is the same as Column 6 but replicates the analysis in a subsample excluding 12 Lombard provinces. Column 8 is the same as Column 6 but replicates the analysis in a subsample excluding 26 provinces listed in the Prime Ministerial Decree of the 8th of March 2020.