Table 3. SEEIIR forecasting model parameters.

Parameter	Definition	Value/Prior distribution
σ	Inverse of the mean incubation period	$U(4^{-1},3^{-1})$
γ	Inverse of the mean infectious period	$U({10}^{-1},9^{-1})$
τ	Time of first exposure (days since 2020-01-01)	$U(0,28)$
$p_{\mathrm{𝑜𝑏𝑠}}$	Probability of observing a case	0.8
k	Dispersion parameter on Negative-Binomial	100
	observation model