Table 1.
Parameters used in the epidemic models.
| Definition | Default value | Range | References |
|---|---|---|---|
| Importing rate for exposed persons | 1 every two days only for young population, lasts for 20 days | 0-2 cases per day, proportional to the size of population, with larger regions have more imported cases | Arbitrary |
| Reproduction number, the average number of secondary cases infected by an index case | 2.6 | 1.5–4 | [1,20,29,30,32] |
| Contact rate per capita | 10 for young, 7 for old, and 3 for interactions between young and old people | Each with 2–30 contacts range. Senior group living or community gathering is not considered. | [23,33] |
| Serial interval: duration between infection point (often symptom onset) of index case and the onset of secondary cases infected by him | 6 days for young, 4 days for old | 3–10 days, average 5 days | [17,19,23,34,35] |
| Incubation period: duration between exposure and symptom onset | 5 days for young, 4 days for old | 2–14 days | [36] |
| Recovery duration | 7 days for young and 14 days for old | 4–20 days | [45] |
| Hospitalization rate | 5% for young, and 30% for old | 5%–50%. average 10% hospitalization among diagnosed, US | |
| Hospital stay | 7 days for young, and 21 for old | 4–30 days | [13,14,37] |
| Mortality among hospitalized | 5% for young, and 20% for old people | 1%–50% | [[13], [14], [15],37,45] |