Table 2.
Basic epidemic measures from the simulation with default model parameterization.
| Young (Age < 65) (susceptible No. = 640,000) |
Old (Age ≥ 65) (susceptible No. = 160,000) |
Total population (susceptible No. = 800,000) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Days to epidemic peak (duration till =<5 cases) | 76 (172) | 66 (122) | 73 (172) |
| Susceptible at epidemic peak No. (% total) | 347,117 (43.4%) | 64,398 (40.2% | 427,443 (53.4%) |
| Maximum quarantined No. (% susceptible) | 3156 (1.8%) | 132 (1.5%) | 3210 (1.8%) |
| Maximum new cases | 18,805 (5.4%) | 7735 (12.0%) | 23,193 (5.4%) |
| Symptomatic No. (incidence %) | 11,145 (3.2%) | 4614 (7.2%) | 13,742 (3.2%) |
| Asymptomatic No. (incidence %) | 7660 (2.2%) | 3121 (4.8%) | 9451 (2.2%) |
| Maximum new hospitalizations No. (%among symptomatic) |
732 (6.6%) | 1247 (27.0%) | 1791 (13.0%) |
| Maximum new deaths No. (%among symptomatic) (%among hospitalized) |
33 (0.3%) (4.5%) | 161 (3.5%) (12.9%) | 191 (1.4%) (10.7%) |
| Total cases within 240 days No (incidence %) | 553,851 (86.5%) | 158,010 (98.8%) | 711,861 (89.0%) |
| Symptomatic No. (incidence %) | 331,168 (51.7%) | 94,354 (59.0%) | 425,522 (53.2%) |
| Asymptomatic No. (incidence %) | 222,683 (34.8%) | 63,656 (39.8%) | 286,339 (35.8%) |
| Total hospitalizations No. (% among symptomatic) |
25,707 (7.8%) | 34,408 (36.5%) | 60,115 (14.1%) |
| Total deaths No. (%among symptomatic) (%among hospitalized) |
1285 (0.4%) (5.0%) | 6998 (7.4%) (20.3%) | 8283 (1.9%) (13.8%) |
Note: Parameters for the default model are listed in the supplemental table 1. Briefly, the population size is 1 million residents, 20% percent of elderly, 20% prior infection, importing young cases at 1 per two days for 20 days (10 cases), 40% mild/asymptomatic cases among unquarantined susceptible, 10 contacts for young people, 7 contacts for elderly people, and 3 contacts between young and elderly people. The peak self-quarantined is 2% of the susceptible population but changes with the prevalence of disease. The hospitalization rate is 5% for young, and 30% for old symptomatic cases, respectively. The mortality rate is 5% for hospitalized young people and 20% for hospitalized elderly. There are no prior symptomatic or asymptomatic cases or quarantined people in the total population. The modeling duration is 240 days.