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. 2020 Aug 26;11:4264. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 1 — The comparative analysis of data and model results for hospitalizations in 107 Italian provinces as of May 1, 2020 is supported by: a a sketch of the Italian regions; b, c the prevalence of cumulative hospitalizations in each Italian province up to May 1, reconstructed data (b) and model simulations (c); d ratio between the estimated transmission rate on May 1, and the one estimated at the beginning of the outbreak (February 24).