Fig. 2. Daily numbers of newly hospitalized cases for Italy and its hardest hit regions.

Shown here are reconstructed data (empty circles), and model results (solid lines and confidence intervals). Clockwise from top: Italy, Lombardia, Piemonte, Marche, Veneto, and Emilia Romagna. The remaining regions are shown in Supplementary Fig. 1. The blue solid line represents the baseline scenario, i.e., the median of the computed results with transmission estimated during lockdown maintained indefinitely beyond May 3, 2020. The green and purple solid lines represent the scenarios corresponding to a release of the containment measures determining an effective increase in the overall transmission rates of, respectively, 20% and 40%. The 95% confidence intervals are color-coded in analogy to their median scenarios. Plots refer to a fraction of infections leading to heavy symptoms σ equal to 25%. Plots referring to the other two values considered (σ = 50% and 10%) are reported in Supplementary Figs. 2 and 3.