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. 2020 Aug 26;11:4264. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — Daily number (left axis) and daily percentage (right axis) of exposed E and individuals at peak infectivity, P, to be isolated daily to maintain the epidemic trajectory onto the blue curve in Fig. 2 (corresponding to the baseline scenario) despite the possible increase in transmission induced by the actual release of restrictions (horizontal axes). Different columns refer to different values of the symptomatic fraction σ: 50% (left, blue), 25% (center, green), and 10% (right, red). Solid lines refer to median values, shaded areas to the 95% (lighter shade), and 50% confidence intervals. In each panel, median and 95% confidence interval of E, P and new daily symptomatic cases (C) are given (estimates refer to May 4). The dashed black lines indicate the estimated number of E and P individuals that can be isolated by tracing all the infections generated by the new daily symptomatic cases. The other Italian regions are shown in Supplementary Figs. 4, 5, and 6.