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. 2020 Aug 26;11:4264. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18050-2

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 5 — Daily numbers of newly hospitalized cases for Italy and its hardest hit regions. Clockwise from top: Italy, Lombardia, Piemonte, Marche, Veneto, and Emilia Romagna. The remaining regions are shown in Supplementary Fig. 8. Red empty circles represent data available for the projection of the scenarios presented in Fig. 2, gray empty circles show the newly available data. Blue colors (solid line: median results, shaded area: 95% confidence intervals) report here, for the sake of comparison, the baseline scenario already presented in Fig. 2. Black colors show the results of the updated parameter estimation that exploits all data available up to June 17.