Table 2.

Predictive effect of socio-demographic indices and baseline covariates

Model specification	LR, p-value	BCV AUROC (%)	BCV BS(%)	RMSE	R2
Standard model (S)	5.34, 0.7209	51.0	12.0	0.35	0.01
Spline model	8.08, 0.8387	49.0	11.0	0.33	0.10
Slope corrected optimism model (SCFM)	7.32,0.7844	49.0	11.0	0.33	0.10
PMLE model	5.76, 0.7360	50.0	10.0	0.32	0.17

LR: Likelihood Ratio test statistic; BCV: Bootstrap cross-validation; RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error; R²: Proportion of explained variation in predicted risk; AUCROC: Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, BS: Brier score