Table 2.
Predicted NH Risk from the Gradient Boosting Model and LTCF Related COVID-19 Case and Death Rates Reported on May 11 by State
| State Ranking Based on Predicted NH Risk Index (as of May 4, 2020) | State | Predicted on May 4, 2020 |
Reported on May 11, 2020 |
Reported LTCF Related Deaths per 1000 Beds (Relative Rank) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Predicted NH Risk Indices (IQR) | Reported LTCF Related Cases per 1000 Beds (Relative Rank) | |||
| 1 | New Jersey | 78.7 (67.1‒82.7) | 500.9 (1) | 92.7 (1) |
| 2 | Massachusetts | 74.8 (65.1‒81.2) | 365.3 (2) | 66.9 (2) |
| 3 | Connecticut | 71.3 (50.6‒78.3) | 251.5 (3) | 63.3 (3) |
| 4 | New York | 66.1 (44.4‒83.5) | No reporting data | 47.8 (4) |
| 5 | Maryland | 65.7 (49.8‒72.2) | 226.3 (5) | 28.8 (7) |
| 6 | Rhode Island | 63.1 (54.6‒70.8) | 230.1 (4) | 37.9 (5) |
| 7 | Delaware | 62.6 (58.5‒72.2) | 91.9 (14) | 28.0 (8) |
| 8 | Louisiana | 58.0 (42.9‒74.5) | 112.3 (11) | 23.3 (10) |
| 9 | California | 54.0 (39.9‒63.7) | 82.7 (15) | 8.4 (21) |
| 10 | Pennsylvania | 51.0 (37.8‒68.1) | 152.5 (8) | 29.0 (6) |
| 11 | Florida | 51.0 (39.7‒59.6) | 66.9 (17) | 8.6 (19) |
| 12 | Virginia | 49.6 (37.7‒63.0) | 115.1 (10) | 15.2 (14) |
| 13 | Michigan | 45.8 (34.0‒70.1) | 99.7 (13) | 4.6 (27) |
| 14 | Illinois | 45.1 (33.9‒73.9) | 127.5 (9) | 17.4 (12) |
| 15 | Colorado | 44.8 (35.6‒59.9) | 184.7 (6) | 26.8 (9) |
| 16 | Washington | 44.8 (36.6‒51.7) | 51.0 (26) | 3.8 (32) |
| 17 | Georgia | 44.8 (36.7‒62.6) | 158.9 (7) | 17.5 (11) |
| 18 | Nevada | 44.8 (40.7‒48.6) | 102.3 (12) | 8.6 (20) |
| 19 | Utah | 43.7 (31.5‒53.8) | 10.3 (40) | 2.0 (37) |
| 20 | Mississippi | 43.6 (37.7‒52.6) | 66.4 (18) | 10.5 (17) |
| 21 | Indiana | 43.5 (36.2‒52.4) | 59.1 (20) | 11.4 (16) |
| 22 | Alabama | 41.5 (34.1‒47.3) | 62.2 (19) | 1.0 (40) |
| 23 | Ohio | 40.7 (31.2‒56.0) | 54.2 (24) | 3.2 (34) |
| 24 | Texas | 40.5 (31.5‒56.0) | 10.1 (41) | 3.6 (33) |
| 25 | South Carolina | 40.0 (33.3‒44.8) | 54.4 (23) | 5.4 (25) |
| 26 | Nebraska | 39.8 (31.5‒45.3) | 5.2 (45) | 0.1 (45) |
| 27 | Hawaii | 38.6 (31.5‒45.4) | 0.7 (49) | No reporting data |
| 28 | New Mexico | 37.7 (31.5‒47.3) | 5.7 (42) | 2.2 (36) |
| 29 | North Carolina | 37.7 (31.5‒46.2) | 56.4 (21) | 7.3 (22) |
| 30 | Arizona | 37.7 (31.9‒44.0) | 76.0 (16) | 12.7 (15) |
| 31 | Alaska | 36.6 (31.5‒42.0) | 3.9 (46) | No reporting data |
| 32 | New Hampshire | 33.9 (26.6‒39.8) | 19.3 (38) | 1.7 (38) |
| 33 | Vermont | 33.7 (31.5‒38.7) | 55.8 (22) | 9.6 (18) |
| 34 | Tennessee | 33.5 (28.4‒44.8) | 22.6 (36) | 2.4 (35) |
| 35 | Kentucky | 33.3 (28.0‒43.6) | 53.3 (25) | 6.7 (23) |
| 36 | Oklahoma | 33.2 (28.5‒44.8) | 35.8 (32) | 4.3 (29) |
| 37 | Arkansas | 33.1 (29.8‒40.5) | 17.8 (39) | 1.4 (39) |
| 38 | Iowa | 32.4 (28.0‒41.5) | 36.8 (31) | 0.5 (42) |
| 39 | Missouri | 32.1 (28.0‒44.8) | 2.4 (48) | 0.2 (43) |
| 40 | Idaho | 31.6 (29.6‒40.5) | 29.1 (34) | 4.7 (26) |
| 41 | Minnesota | 31.5 (28.0‒46.4) | 48.7 (27) | 16.8 (13) |
| 42 | Kansas | 31.5 (28.0‒40.7) | 26.2 (35) | 4.2 (30) |
| 43 | Wyoming | 31.5 (28.0‒37.7) | 5.4 (43) | No reporting data |
| 44 | West Virginia | 31.5 (29.7‒37.7) | 30.7 (33) | 4.0 (31) |
| 45 | Oregon | 31.5 (31.3‒50.8) | 39.9 (29) | 6.3 (24) |
| 46 | Montana | 29.8 (28.0‒34.4) | 5.4 (44) | 0.9 (41) |
| 47 | North Dakota | 29.1 (27.6‒39.5) | 44.0 (28) | No reporting data |
| 48 | Maine | 28.9 (25.5‒35.1) | 37.7 (30) | 4.4 (28) |
| 49 | South Dakota | 28.5 (25.3‒36.6) | 2.8 (47) | No reporting data |
| 50 | Wisconsin | 28.0 (25.3‒37.9) | 22.1 (37) | 0.2 (44) |
IQR, interquartile range.
States were ranked in descending order based on the state's median, 75th percentile and 25th percentile risk index as of May 4, 2020.