Table 2.
The C-statistic (95% confidence interval) of the survival models in predicting risk of progression to late age-related macular degeneration on the combined AREDS/AREDS2 test sets (601 participants).
| Models | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | All years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late AMD | ||||||
| Deep features/survival | 87.8 (87.5,88.1) | 85.8 (85.4,86.2) | 86.3 (86.1,86.6) | 86.7 (86.5,86.9) | 86.4 (86.2,86.6) | 86.7 (86.5,86.8) |
| DL grading/survival | 84.9 (84.6,85.3) | 84.1 (83.8,84.4) | 84.8 (84.5,85.0) | 84.8 (84.6,85.0) | 85.1 (85.0,85.3) | 84.9 (84.6,85.3) |
| Retinal specialists/calculator | – | 78.3 (77.9,78.8) | 81.8 (81.5,82.1) | 82.7 (82.4,82.9) | 82.0 (81.8,82.3) | – |
| Retinal specialists/SSSa | – | – | – | – | 81.3 (81.1,81.5) | – |
| Geographic atrophy | ||||||
| Deep features/survival | 89.2 (88.9,89.6) | 91.0 (90.7,91.2) | 88.7 (88.4,88.9) | 89.1 (88.9,89.3) | 89.6 (89.4,89.8) | 89.2 (89.1,89.4) |
| DL grading/survival | 88.6 (88.3,88.9) | 86.6 (86.4,86.9) | 87.6 (87.4,87.9) | 88.1 (87.9,88.3) | 87.8 (87.6,88.0) | 88.6 (88.3,88.9) |
| Retinal specialists/calculator | – | 77.5 (76.9,78.0) | 81.2 (80.8,81.6) | 82.0 (81.6,82.3) | 82.6 (82.3,82.9) | – |
| Retinal specialists/SSSa | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Neovascular AMD | ||||||
| Deep features/survival | 85.4 (84.9,85.9) | 77.9 (77.3,78.5) | 81.7 (81.3,82.1) | 81.7 (81.4,82.1) | 81.1 (80.8,81.4) | 82.1 (81.8,82.4) |
| DL grading/survival | 78.0 (77.4,78.6) | 78.4 (77.9,78.9) | 79.2 (78.8,79.6) | 79.0 (78.7,79.4) | 80.2 (79.8,80.5) | 78.0 (77.4,78.6) |
| Retinal specialists/calculator | – | 75.5 (74.8,76.2) | 81.7 (81.2,82.1) | 81.4 (81.0,81.8) | 80.0 (79.7,80.4) | – |
| Retinal specialists/SSSa | – | – | – | – | – | – |
AMD age-related macular degeneration, DL deep learning, SSS Simplified Severity Scale.
aRetinal specialists/SSS—makes predictions at one fixed interval of 5 years and for late AMD only (i.e., not by disease subtype); unlike all other models, for SSS, late AMD is defined as NV or central GA (instead of NV or any GA); please refer to the Supplementary Table 2 for results using genotype information, and Supplementary Table 3 for multivariate analysis.