Fig. 4.

Brazil reproduction number.

Notes: The model-implied ${\mathcal{R}}_t$ for Brazil exhibits some sharp downward and upward jumps during the middle part of April ($t=40$ to $t=50$), which may reflect reporting errors in the number of infected cases. The model-implied ${\mathcal{R}}_t$ averaged over the most-recent 7 days remains above 1.0 at the end of our data sample, reflecting an upward trend in the number of infected cases.