Table OA.9:
Contemporaneous Total Tax Components ($000)
| (1) Age 19 | (2) Age 20 | (3) Age 21 | (4) Age 22 | (5) Age 23 | (6) Age 24 | (7) Age 25 | (8) Age 26 | (9) Age 27 | (10) Age 28 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | ||||||||||
| EITC | ||||||||||
| Simulated Years Eligible, Age 0–18 | −0.005*** | −0.009*** | −0.012*** | −0.016*** | −0.019*** | −0.020*** | −0.026*** | −0.028*** | −0.026*** | −0.021*** |
| (0.001) | (0.002) | (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.005) | (0.005) | (0.006) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.008) | |
| Mean | 0.066 | 0.119 | 0.175 | 0.226 | 0.275 | 0.323 | 0.395 | 0.443 | 0.489 | 0.533 |
| % Change in Total Taxes | 42% | 56% | 75% | 62% | 40% | 29% | 28% | 30% | 37% | 24% |
| Payroll Taxes | ||||||||||
| Simulated Years Eligible, Age 0–18 | 0.003 | −0.000 | −0.003 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 0.015* | 0.016 | 0.013 | −0.006 | −0.006 |
| (0.002) | (0.003) | (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.005) | (0.008) | (0.010) | (0.011) | (0.010) | (0.010) | |
| Mean | 0.337 | 0.457 | 0.568 | 0.737 | 1.011 | 1.300 | 1.511 | 1.687 | 1.736 | 1.752 |
| % Change in Total Taxes | 25% | 0% | −19% | 0% | 17% | 21% | 17% | 14% | −8% | −7% |
| Income Taxes + EITC | ||||||||||
| Simulated Years Eligible, Age 0–18 | 0.004 | 0.007* | 0.007 | 0.010 | 0.021** | 0.035** | 0.050** | 0.053** | 0.051* | 0.073** |
| (0.003) | (0.004) | (0.004) | (0.006) | (0.010) | (0.016) | (0.019) | (0.022) | (0.026) | (0.034) | |
| Mean | 0.204 | 0.286 | 0.373 | 0.537 | 0.905 | 1.353 | 1.701 | 2.034 | 2.387 | 2.791 |
| % Change in Total Taxes | 33% | 44% | 44% | 38% | 44% | 50% | 54% | 56% | 72% | 83% |
| Female Observations | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 | 4,913,139 |
| Male Observations | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 | 5,132,023 |
| All Observations | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 | 10,045,162 |
Note.
p < 0.01,
p < 0.05,
p < 0.10.
Standard errors in parentheses are clustered by state. Contemporaneous EITC indicates EITC earned at a given age, obtained from Form 1040, adjusted to 2011 dollars. Contemporaneous payroll taxes indicate payroll taxes earned at a given age, defined as employee portion of payroll taxes reported on Form W-2 across employers, only for the individuals of interest, and the taxes reported on Schedule SE for the self employed, both adjusted to 2011 dollars. Contemporaneous income taxes are defined as household federal tax payments less EITC at a given age, adjusted to 2011 dollars. Coefficients for each age are obtained from separate reduced form regressions of the given outcome on simulated years eligible, ages 0–18. The specification includes fixed effects for birth cohort by month and for state of residence at age 15 (the youngest age at which we observe all individuals in our sample). The “% change in total taxes” due to each component is calculated as the ratio between the point estimate for the given component and the point estimate for total taxes at each age, adjusted by a factor of (−1) for the EITC component, which enters negatively into the decomposition. For example, at age 28 in the full sample, 27% (=(−1)*(−0.030)/0.110) of the increase in contemporaneous total taxes due to an additional year of Medicaid eligibility is due to decreases in EITC.