Table 1.
Summary of peer-reviewed, gray, and supplemental literature
| Study categorya | Scenario basisb | Study | Time horizonc | Scenario | Anticipated hazards, categorizedc,d,e | Recommendations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Summary of peer-reviewed literature | ||||||
| 1 | 3 | Bellace (2018) | 0–3 years | The nature of work has changed substantially, requiring a new labor law paradigm. | Psychosocial—Disappearance of long-term employment; globalization; income insecurity; job loss; lack of unions; loss of group identity; premature deindustrialization. | Reconsider the purpose of labor law. Recognize the dignity of working persons. Link income security to work. |
| 3 | Caruso (2018) | Unclear | Industry 4.0—technological innovations (e.g. robots, machine learning, artificial intelligence, 3D printing) lead to transformations in the way goods and services are produced. | Psychosocial—Alienation; blurred work–home boundaries; decentralized production networks; insecurity; instability; new forms of employment (e.g. employee sharing, job sharing, interim management, mobile work, voucher-based work, portfolio work, crowdworking); polarization; precariousness; skills gaps; social tensions; unemployment; unpredictable working conditions and work organization. | Empower workers to make decisions and regulate workload. Engage in collective decision making. Improve communication. Launch initiatives for competency development and work organization. | |
| 3 | Ghislieri et al. (2018) | 0–3 years | There will be an expanded integration of robots and other automated machines in the workplace. This will be accompanied by a transformation of needed job skills. | Psychosocial—24/7 availability; complacency; counterproductive workplace behaviors; decreased informal learning; decreased motivation; decreased situational awareness; decreased vigilance; distrust of automation; inequality; lack of autonomy; misuse, abuse, and disuse of technology; reduced human relationships; reduced organizational commitment; stress; uncertainty. | Capitalize on synergies between educational and training systems. Conduct research (especially longitudinal studies) to examine the effects of technology. Foster collaboration between HR practitioners and work organization researchers. Implement leadership interventions. Improve communication. | |
| 3 | Johansson et al. (2017) | Unclear | Industry 4.0 will be a technological revolution that includes the automation and digitalization of industry. | Physical—Collaborative robots; repetitive work that cannot be automated. Psychosocial—24/7 availability; blurred work-home boundaries; cognitive skills gaps; collaborative robots; increased information flow; masculinization and feminization of technology; over-reliance on technology; re-engineering of organizations and work processes; robotization; stress; unclear employment conditions, competence, skills, roles, responsibilities, and labor sourcing strategies; upskilling, deskilling, and reskilling; Wireless Body Area Networks. | Conduct research on crowdsourcing. Conduct organizational and discourse analyses focused on the relationships between technology, skills, identity, and gender. Develop theories to understand changes to workers’ relationships, workplace norms, and the organization of work. | |
| 3 | Traulsen and Druedahl (2018) | Unclear | The future of pharmacy work will include precarious work arrangements. | Psychosocial—Dissatisfaction; globalization; job insecurity; lack of job control; precarious work; training gaps; underemployment. | Build alliances with other healthcare professionals. Create fluid work environments. Operate using standard contracts. Promote interprofessional education. | |
| 2 | 3 | Djebrouni and Wolbring (2019) | 0–3 years | The role of robotics in human enhancement and rehabilitation is unknown. | Physical—Robots. Psychosocial—Multitasking; stress; stressful interaction with robots. | Account for potential negative effects of robots for workers with disabilities. |
| 3 | Islam (2018) | 0–3 years | Digital technologies will shape the world of work in India. | Psychosocial—Displacement; long work hours; multiple jobs; precariousness; stress; uncertainty. | Adequately invest in digital infrastructure. Systematically evaluate wages and working conditions for nonstandard employment. Evaluate how new technologies impact poor and vulnerable populations. | |
| 3 | Koppenborg et al. (2017) | 0–3 years | Future work will include an increased volume and complexity of human–robot collaborations. | Physical—Collaborative robots. Psychosocial—Anxiety; collaborative robots; fatigue; greater perceived risk; inaccurate mental models; increased workload; lack of concentration; operator error; reduced quality control; stress. | Consider human factors in risk assessments. Design robots that communicate movement plans to human workers. Reduce collisions between robots and operators. | |
| 3 | Murashov et al. (2016) | 0–3 years | Occupational robotics will play an increasing role in the workplace. | Physical—Industrial robots; collaborative robots; managerial robots; professional and personal service robots; unpredictability of robot movements. Psychosocial—Collaborative robots; job demands; managerial robots; unpredictability of robot movements; job insecurity. | Design robots to assess human emotions and respond accordingly. Establish international consensus standards. Establish robotic safety standards. Implement NIOSH recommendations for work with robots: barriers, adequate clearance distances, remote diagnostics, adequate illumination, and clear markings around robot movement zone. Implement proactive approaches for robotic hazard assessment and risk management. Offer safety training; Reduce robot weight, size, operating speed, and force. | |
| 1 | Pham et al. (2018) | 0–3 years | Robotics and automation in the workplace may lead to increased rates of unemployment. | Psychosocial—Dehumanized work; fewer working hours; increased work pace; job destruction; job loss; salary reduction; shifting economic and power structures. | Increase worker education, both initially and continuing. Implement universal basic income. Tax corporations that deploy robots and cause job loss. | |
| 3 | Pyke (2018) | 0–3 years | To achieve inclusive growth, technological disruption will need to be managed at the policy level. | Physical—Health decrements. Psychosocial—Insecurity; job destruction; job loss; long-term unemployment; new enterprise-enterprise and customer-enterprise relationships; skills gaps; social disconnection. | Address community bottlenecks (e.g. healthcare, childcare, transportation, education). Adjust welfare benefits. Create policies to reduce inequality (e.g. minimum wage). Form economic and social councils. Ensure fair distribution of gains through taxation and other policies. Establish national and international standards. Establish social protection systems. Improve employability through job fairs, employment centers, databases, and interview preparation. Offer decent working conditions. | |
| 3 | Qureshi and Syed (2014) | 0–3 years | The use of robots will impact employment and motivation in the health care sector. | Psychosocial—Increased educational requirements; polarization; unemployment. | Establish Human Relations initiatives. Offer training and development. | |
| 3 | 3 | Chia et al. (2019) | Unclear | Industry 4.0 will require a new workplace safety and health strategy, named WSH 4.0. | Biological—Synthetic biology. Psychosocial—Autonomous robots; blurred work-home boundaries; burnout; collaborative robots; discontinuity of work; displacement; gig economy; precariousness; social disruption; stress; underemployment; unemployment. | Advocate for responsible innovation. Conduct robust surveillance. Construct anticipatory governance frameworks. Design regulatory standards for human–machine interface. Engage in multi-stakeholder dialogue. Facilitate platform cooperativism. Implement adaptive workplace safety and health solutions. Offer professional development. Utilize adaptive risk management. |
| 1 | Hauke et al. (2018) | 4–10 years | Occupational sectors will have specific OSH concerns in the next 5 years. | Physical—Ergonomic stresses; noise; human-machine interface; mobility/traffic density; physical inactivity; unhealthy diet. Chemical—Diesel emissions; epoxy resins; mold spores; synthetic medicine resistance; mineral fibers; nanotechnology; UV radiation. Biological—Medicine resistance; nanotechnology. Psychosocial—Blurred work–life boundaries; demographic changes; extended responsibilities; job insecurity; mobile work; network availability and control; physical violence; psychological violence; pressure to succeed in schools/training programs; skills gaps; work intensification. | Build prevention culture. Conduct cost–benefit analyses for musculoskeletal train and work intensity. Conduct risk assessments for ICTs. Design dynamic office workplaces. Design feedback systems for ergonomics. Develop indicators to measure health as factor of organizational success. Develop noise exposure atlases. Establish guidelines for how to handle worker availability. Establish participative approaches for employee health and professional development. Implement information communication technology (ICT) security measures and safety trainings. Provide incentive systems for health promotion. Provide multitasking training for older employees. Reinforce digital literacy training. Reinforce health literacy training. Reinforce innovation training for managers. Reinforce sensitivity training for managers and employees. Reinforce work ability training. Use exoskeletons when lifting and carrying. | |
| 2 | Leso et al. (2018) | 0–3 years | Industry 4.0 will provide opportunities and challenges to worker safety and health. | Physical—Automation; engineering or programming errors in equipment design and maintenance; human error in equipment use. Psychosocial—Abstraction; automation; complex management; engineering or programming errors in equipment design and maintenance; human error in equipment use; job destruction; loss of control; mental overload; occupational uncertainty; overwork; privacy invasion; problem-solving demands; psychological pressure; reduced inter-human contact; skills gap; unemployment; work density. | Adopt suitable management strategies for worker protections. Decrease repetitive or monotonous tasks. Design out hazards and risks at design or implementation phase. Engage in proactive approaches to risk assessment. Enhance coping and supporting strategies. Improve the work-home interface. Monitor employee well-being. Offer lifelong learning for professional upgrading and active aging. Use smart personal protective equipment | |
| 3 | Niu et al. (2019) | 0–3 years | AI will impact OSH management strategies in the construction sector. | Physical—Crowded worksites. Chemical—Toxic vapors. Psychosocial—Crowded worksites; distractions; fatigue. | Engage in real-time condition logging by smart construction objects (SCOs). Use tech-based systems to detect hazards and issue alerts. Facilitate SCO information-sharing. Generate and execute autonomous SCO solutions. | |
| 4 | 1 | Iavicoli et al. (2018) | Unclear | OSH ethics must be developed in response to the changing world of work. | Chemical—Nanomaterials. Psychosocial—Blurred work–home boundaries; control and monitoring by employer; disconnect between organizational performance economically (turnover, costs, profits) and socially (ethical responsibilities); discrimination; globalization, market intensification; robotics in the workplace; social isolation. | Consider privacy, ethical, social, and other implications when formulating policy. Foster collaboration between OSH and other professionals. Integrate personal, professional, and institutional ethics. Introduce ethics courses to medical curricula. Mine existing data sources. Review the competence of OSH professionals. |
| Study | Scenario basisb | Time horizonc | Scenario | Anticipated hazards, categorizedc,d,e | Recommendations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Gray literature describing future of work scenarios and hazards | |||||
| Brown et al. (2018) | 3 | 11+ years | The continua of collectivism/ individualism and integration/ fragmentation result in four ‘worlds’ of work: yellow, red, green, and blue. | Psychosocial—Devalued human effort; highly specialized skills set; lack of privacy; nonstandard work arrangements; polarization, turnover; work pace. | Deliberately incorporate technology. Facilitate training. Incentivize adaptability, leadership, creativity, and innovation. Innovate ways to address unemployment due to technology. Pay attention to megatrends. |
| Eurofound (2018) | 1 | Unclear | Automation, process digitization, and coordination by platforms impact working conditions. | Psychosocial—Ambiguity, artificial intelligence; anxiety; changes to working hours; displacement; financial concerns; instability; lack; of autonomy; limited social and contractual protections; precariousness, polarization, union breakdown. | Advocate for transparency in taxation and employment status. Develop policies that protect and regulate nonstandard work. Examine gender distribution of crowd workers. Reframe union strategies and adapt traditional practices to include digital platforms. |
| UK Commission for Employment and Skills (2014) | 3 | 11+ years | Four scenarios for the future of employment in the UK: forced flexibility, the great divide, skills activism, and innovation adaptation. | Psychosocial—Disappearance of mid-skilled jobs; turnover, unemployment. | Adapt training programs to reflect interdisciplinary approaches. Adapt organizational values to create meaning and value to work. Manage skills and talent across global etworks. Develop blend of technical and collaborative skills. Develop policy- and regulation-based strategies that contribute to job growth. Develop sustainable career and learning paths for young workers. Prepare for increasing workforce diversity. Update skills. |
| World Economic Forum (2018a) | 1 | Unclear | The rate of technological change (steady/accelerated), evolution of learning (slow/fast), and magnitude of talent mobility (low/high) lead to eight permutations for the future of work. | Psychosocial—Disconnection; dislocation; displacement; financial strain; polarization, restricted migration; skills gaps; unemployment. | Advocate for education reform. Create agile, portable, and sustainable safety nets. Enhance digital access. Govern online platform work. Incentivize job protection. Incentivize labor force participation. Incentivize smart job creation. Manage mobility. Provide opportunities for reskilling, upskilling, and retraining. Support entrepreneurs. |
| C. Supplemental literature describing future of work scenarios and hazards | |||||
| Daheim and Wintermann (2016) | 3 | 11+ years | Three visions of the future result from rapid technological change that will radically transform the way people work. | Physical—Climate change (drought and famine). Psychosocial—Accelerated social, economic, and technological change; alienation; dissolution of social norms and regulations; extreme political polarization; organized crime; self-employment; social division; unemployment. | Establish new social contracts. Facilitate domestic and international cooperation to improve our understanding and control over technological change. Modify institutions and processes to be more proactive in anticipating and shaping the future. Partner with experts in the cultural sector to create positive representations of work. Teach skills and promote meta-skills that prepare future workers for multi-track employment. |
| DeBruyne and Gerritse (2018) | 3 | 4–10 years | By 2025, fast-developing digitalization will impact work processes and environments for office-based work in The Netherlands. | Psychosocial—24/7 availability; automation; blurred work–home boundaries; decreased visibility; digitalization; digital insecurity; disconnection; dynamic labor market; fragmentation; globalization; job loss; shortened labor contracts; skills gap; speed of IT changes. | Build organizations around self-managing teams that can quickly respond to demands. Design a digital infrastructure that supports cooperation and collaboration. Encourage social cohesion in physical and digital environments. Improve flexibility of office spaces. Provide a balance between office, home office, and ‘third workplace’. |
| Dellot et al. (2019) | 3 | 11+ years | Technological advances will impact the UK labor market by 2035 in many ways, producing four alternative futures: the big tech economy, the precision economy, the exodus economy, and the empathy economy. | Psychosocial—AI; automation; contingent work; cybercrime; digitalization; economic insecurity; emotional labor; globalization; inequality; job fracturing; job loss; on-demand work; platform-based work; polarization; rapid technological change; robots; surveillance; unemployment. | Engage in higher quality debates about what technology is capable of and what that means for workers. Give workers a greater say over technology deployment. Keep regulations on pace with changing labor and technology markets. Renew tax and welfare institutions to widely share the benefits of technological change. Steward the creation of new technologies to address problems during development. Upskill the workforce on an ongoing basis. |
| Hajkowicz et al. (2016) | 1 | 11+ years | Four scenarios identified by assessing megatrends in cells along two axes related to tasks uncertainty and institutional change. | Psychosocial—Job displacement and disruption. | Develop skills and aptitudes for tomorrow’s jobs. Develop better measures of workforce statistics with forces on productivity well-being and labor markets. Engage in lifelong learning. |
| Healy et al. (2017) | 3 | Unclear | Technology will impact jobs and skills in Australia, resulting in optimistic, essimistic, and mixed scenarios for the future. | Psychosocial—AI; automation; blurred work–home boundaries; casual employment; gig work; globalization; job destruction; job displacement; migration; polarization; rapid technological change; robotics; skills gaps. | Balance efforts to promote of innovation with efforts to minimize the adverse effects of technology. Weigh the negative and positive consequences of change and innovation on work and skills. |
| HLEG (2019) | 1 | Unclear | The future of both work and society in general will be immersed in AI. | Physical—Injury from AI misuse or insufficient security; Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS). Psychosocial—Deception; discrimination; inequality; manipulation; marginalization; prejudice; unjustified surveillance; vulnerability. | Acknowledge both the benefits and risks AI poses for individuals and society. Clearly communicate AI system capabilities and limitations to stakeholders. Create human-centric AI systems. Develop, deploy, and use trustworthy AI systems in a way that adheres to ethical principles. Foster research and innovation to assess AI systems, and widely disseminate results. Measure AI implementation using technical and non-technical methods. Support historically vulnerable groups. |
| Howard (2019) | 3 | 0–3 years | Work will continue to incorporate the use of AI and machine learning. | Physical—Fatalities; injuries. Psychosocial—Automation; depersonalization; displacement; job destruction; stress; surveillance. | Disclose all data uses. Ensure secure data storage. Ensure voluntary worker participation in monitoring programs. Establish methods to increase human control over cobots, such as human hand guiding, speed and separation monitoring, and power and force limitations. Implement safety-related monitored stopping controls for AI and robots. Use only validated sensor technologies. |
| International SOS Foundation (2018) | 2 | 11+ years | There will be an increase in complexity of OSH requirements by 2030. | Psychosocial—AI; automation; blurred work/home boundaries; globalization. | Consider mental health as equal in importance to physical health. Focus on building resilient cultures rather than individual case management. Move away from ‘managing stress’ and focus instead on well-being. Seek and obtain leadership commitment to OSH. |
| Korge (2018) | 1 | Unclear | Four scenarios of office production work by assessing two axes; one based on goal of digitalization; the other based on complexity of tasks and qualifications. | Psychosocial—Automation; decentralization; difficulty with the unknown; digitalization; increased complexity; qualified workers at risk of being deskilling. | Shape the future of work, which is not certain, using strategies that assure long-term market competitiveness. Utilize participatory leadership approaches. |
| Moore (2019) | 3 | Unclear | The implementation of technology will significantly change working conditions | Physical—Collaborative robots; injuries; musculoskeletal disorders; sensor degradation; unstructured environments; violence. Psychosocial—Anxiety; bullying; communication issues; deskilling; discrimination; harassment; gig work; insecurity; job destruction; liability; nonstandard work hours; overwork; precariousness; racism; restructuring; stress; surveillance; training gaps; work intensification; work-life imbalance; violence. | Balance the use of automated processing with human intervention for decision making. Consider ethical implications before deploying new AI. Design standards and regulations for worker surveillance. Establish horizontal and sectoral rules to protect workers and ensure AI integration will yield benefits. Offer workers additional training in the area of problem solving (skills and principles). Train workers to understand the role and function of workplace robots. |
| Ponce del Castillo and Meinert (2016) | 1 | 11+ years | Based on how the next generation of Europe reacts to OSH challenges with respect to social/liberal orientation and rigidity/participation for work organization, four scenarios are offered for the state of work in 2040: well-being, self-reliance, productivity, and protection. | Physical—Ergonomic challenges associated with sedentary work and heavy-duty work. Biological—Nanomedicine; cell engineering. Psychosocial—Burnout, interpersonal conflicts; lack of unions, nonstandard work arrangements; performance pressures; presenteeism; reduced OSH budgets; role overload; social isolation; surveillance of work performance; work intensification. | Apply prevention through design concepts during the development of new technologies and products. Ensure workers have access to healthy working conditions. Train workers to embrace change. |
| Schultz (2007) | 3 | 4–10 years | Four scenarios for the future of work in the UK result as the cross-product of market competition and resilience to change: a virtue of necessity, the digital rose garden, tough choices, and boom and blame. | Chemical—Nanomaterials. Physical—Terahertz technology. Biological—Biotechnology; new diseases; new flora and fauna; technologies that augment the human body (e.g. bionics, body and brain implants, genomics); stress-depressed immune systems. Psychosocial—Blurred work/home boundaries; cybersecurity; deregulation, economic decentralization; globalization; invasive monitoring; lack of unions; nonstandard work arrangements; polarization, social exclusion; stress. | Adapt standards for fitness for work to accommodate changing workforce demographics (e.g. age, lifestyle). Debate the trade-offs between OSH and environmental action. Develop close partnerships between OSH, public health entities, and social services. Distinguish between the roles of enforcers and advisors of OSH. Enforce OSH policies. Inform and prepare the next generation about emerging risks, risk management, and risk communications. Introduce local-based regulations and support local networks. Measure OSH success in terms of well-being rather than accident rates. Regulate and oversee work practices. Review regulatory frameworks and assess them for their adequacy in controlling changing risks in a changing workplace. Use fiscal incentives rather than sanctions to encourage behavior change, especially for small-and-medium enterprises. |
| Stacey et al. (2018) | 3 | 4–10 years | ICTs and digitalization will create new OSH challenges and opportunities, resulting in four possible scenarios based on the cross-product of attitudes (government and public) and economic growth/technology applications: evolution, transformation, exploitation, and fragmentation. | Physical—Collaborative robots; decreased situational awareness; ergonomic challenges of working anytime and anywhere; exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMFs); loss of bone or muscle density from exoskeleton use; malfunctioning exoskeletons; misinterpreted or lost control commands; repetition; sedentary work; sleep loss from low-intensity light emitted by ICTs. Psychosocial—24/7 availability; AI; automation; blurred work/home boundaries; cognitive load; cyberbullying; cybersecurity; deskilling; inadequate regulatory frameworks; job changes; job destruction; lack of unions; longer working life; loss of social skills; monitoring technologies; multiple concurrent employers; nonstandard work arrangements; performance pressure; polarization; privacy invasion; remote management practices; self-employment; sabotage, skills gaps; stress; task deprivation; work-life fit; work pace. | Ensure a level playing field across diverse employment relationships. Ensure the large quantity of surveillance data generated is handled ethically. Implement smart personal protective equipment (PPE). Provide training on both new technologies and ‘soft skills’ relevant to nonstandard work arrangements (e.g. self-reliance, adaptability, resilience, cultural sensitivity). Use technology (e.g. AR, VR, AI algorithms) to accurately assess and develop effective prevention measures. |
| Stollt and Meinert (2010) | 1 | 11+ years | Workers and unions may behave and react to changing work-related contexts in four different ways by 2030: life goes on, the grid, alone, and lost cake. | Psychosocial—Anger; complex systems; economic crises; isolation; loss of trade unions; poverty; precarious work; resource depletion; social exclusion; unemployment. | Develop strategic plans at the organization level. Identify leverage points for achieving organizational goals. |
| Subramony et al. (2018) | 3 | 11+ years | Service work arrangements will evolve toward unclear employment relationships characterized by long-term social contracts, tightly defined work roles, and the physical proximity of workers and organizations | Psychosocial—Ambiguous normative cues; decreased self-worth; dehumanization; diminished sense of ownership; disengagement; insecurity; job dissatisfaction; lack of task and relational interdependence; role stressors; social alienation; turnover. | Build networks of mentors and coaches to assist with professional development. Communicate identity, values, and purpose of each work ecosystem to potential and current workers. Create safety nets to reduce unemployment and enable workers to pursue multiple assignments. Enforce guidelines for information confidentiality and privacy. Leverage social network platforms that are occupation-specific to reinforce a sense of belonging. Provide opportunities and feedback to enhance workers’ feelings of competence. Use workers to work-related ecosystems. |
aScenario study categories: 1 = changing patterns of employment and work organization; 2 = management of technological change and human–robot interaction; 3 = occupational safety and health (OSH); 4 = ethical considerations.
bBasis: 1 = conjecture only; 2 = data only; 3 = conjecture and data.
cFrom date of publication.
dHazards labeled psychosocial may also include those related to the organization of work.
eSome hazards were depicted as risk factors in the literature, whereas others were depicted as deleterious effects.