Table 1.
Forecast projection parameters from modeled curves shown in Fig. 2
| Scenario (deaths/day) | Max. registered cases/day | Overall death toll | Model DDlag (days) | Less than 626 deaths/dayb | Less than 4190 cases/dayb |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1250 | 26,709 ± 3 | 70,664 ± 5584 | 7.3 ± 0.3 | July 5 ± 10.3 | August 3 ± 11.8 |
| 1500 | 32,051 ± 3 | 85,172 ± 12,536 | 7.4 ± 0.3 | July 16 ± 20.8 | August 19 ± 11.7 |
| 1750 | 37,393 ± 4 | 99,370 ± 20,836 | 10.9 ± 0.5 | August 14 ± 32.1 | August 30 ± 12.3 |
| 2000 | 42,735 ± 4 | 113,566 ± 23,813 | 17.5 ± 0.9 | August 29 ± 33.5 | October 19 ± 15.9 |
aErrors propagated from standard errors and R2 given by fit software
bErrors are presented in days