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. 2020 Aug 28;11:4353. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 3 — a Mean model predictions for LIS-MAL and the Tanser rainfall threshold at each time step with a summary of areas in 3-month categories. Bars indicate mean of model estimates (n = 7); points indicate individual model estimates. b Mean changes in malaria hydro-climatic suitability predicted across forcing models by LIS-MAL and Tanser models between 1971–2005 and 2071–2100, where the signal-to-noise ratio >0.5. Different saturations indicate the signal-to-noise ratio across the seven projections, with the noise defined as the standard deviation of estimates across the projections. c Stacked histograms showing changes number of months climatically suitable up to 2071–2100 split into categories of signal-to-noise ratio from b. For changes between all periods and all hydrological models see Supplementary Figs. 6–8.