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. 2020 Aug 28;11:4353. doi: 10.1038/s41467-020-18239-5

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© The Author(s) 2020

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 4 — a Populations within areas climatically suitable for malaria transmission. Solid lines show the mean of the GCM forcing models, shaded areas indicate ±1 standard deviation and dashed lines show a range of predictions. Total population and under-5s calculated for both the Tanser rainfall threshold and LIS-MAL estimates using the WorldPop gridded distributions and UN medium variant projections for each period. b Predicted percentage changes in population-months (i.e. population exposed multiplied by the number of additional months of exposure) by country. White shading indicates no estimated malaria suitability.