Table 1. Regression tables predicting growth in (A) cases and (B) deaths. Day is mean-centered, and BCG policy variables are both contrast-coded.

Population is natural log-transformed, and all covariates are standardized. This analysis is based on 134 and 135 countries for cases and deaths, respectively. GDP, gross domestic product.

	A. Cases			B. Deaths
Predictor	b	t	P	b	t	P
Intercept	6.793	42.165	<0.001	2.445	8.284	<0.001
Day	0.114	12.218	<0.001	0.139	9.236	<0.001
Median age	0.219	2.164	0.034	0.224	1.363	0.176
GDP per capita	0.163	1.586	0.115	0.145	0.930	0.354
Population density	−0.099	−1.715	0.089	−0.012	−0.135	0.893
Net migration rate	0.111	1.242	0.217	0.050	0.368	0.713
Population	0.518	8.533	<0.001	0.679	7.281	<0.001
BCG past versus never	0.136	0.415	0.679	−0.164	−0.322	0.748
BCG current versus not current	−0.633	−3.388	0.001	−0.993	−3.437	0.001
Day × median age	0.008	1.442	0.153	0.020	2.631	0.010
Day × GDP per capita	0.010	1.951	0.053	0.011	1.515	0.132
Day × population density	−0.001	−0.390	0.697	−0.003	−0.674	0.502
Day × net migration rate	0.005	1.051	0.295	0.003	0.492	0.623
Day × population	0.030	9.617	<0.001	0.037	8.860	<0.001
Day × BCG past versus never	−0.009	−0.511	0.610	−0.007	−0.291	0.772
Day × BCG current versus not current	−0.039	−3.978	<0.001	−0.059	−4.530	<0.001