TABLE 1.
Prevalence of Prediabetes and Undiagnosed Diabetes by Screening Eligibility in US Children and Adolescents Aged 10 to 19 Years, NHANES 1999–2016
| Screen Eligible, Weighted % = 25.5%, US Population = 10.5 Million | Not Screen Eligible, Weighted % = 74.5%, US Population = 31.1 Million | Diagnostic Performance of Screening | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) | US Population n, Millions | Unweighted n | Weighted % (95% CI) | US Population n, Millions | Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | Specificity, % (95% CI) | PPV, % (95% CI) | NPV, % (95% CI) | |
| Diagnosed diabetesa | — | — | — | 94 | 0.5 (0.4–0.7) | 0.2 | ||||
| Undiagnosed diabetes | ||||||||||
| HbA1c ≥6.5%b | 17 | 0.3 (0.1–0.5) | 0.03 | 4 | <0.1d | —d | 85.7 (71.0–100.0) | 74.6 (73.4–75.8) | ∼0 | ∼100 |
| HbA1c ≥6.5%c | 7 | <0.5d | —d | 1 | <0.1d | —d | 90.7 (72.5–100.0) | 75.8 (74.2–77.4) | ∼0 | ∼100 |
| FPG ≥126 mg/dLc | 8 | <0.5d | —d | 4 | <0.1d | —d | 78.4 (55.1–100.0) | 75.8 (74.2–77.4) | ∼0 | ∼100 |
| Eitherc | 9 | <0.5d | —d | 4 | <0.1d | —d | 78.7 (55.8–100.0) | 75.8 (74.2–77.4) | ∼0 | ∼100 |
| Bothc | 6 | <0.5d | —d | 1 | <0.1d | —d | 90.5 (71.9–100.0) | 75.8 (74.2–77.4) | ∼0 | ∼100 |
| Prediabetes | ||||||||||
| HbA1c 5.7%–6.4%b | 226 | 3.8 (3.1–4.5) | 0.4 | 166 | 1.1 (0.9–1.3) | 0.3 | 54.5 (47.3–61.7) | 75.1 (73.9–76.3) | 3.8 (3.1–4.5) | 98.9 (98.7–99.1) |
| HbA1c 5.7%–6.4%c | 84 | 3.4 (2.3–4.6) | 0.3 | 70 | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) | 0.2 | 53.2 (41.8–64.5) | 76.3 (74.7–77.8) | 3.4 (2.3–4.6) | 99.0 (98.7–99.3) |
| FPG 100–125 mg/dLc | 300 | 15.6 (13.0–18.3) | 1.3 | 401 | 9.2 (7.8–10.5) | 2.3 | 35.2 (29.6–40.9) | 77.1 (75.6–78.7) | 15.6 (13.0–18.3) | 90.8 (89.5–92.2) |
| Eitherc | 350 | 17.5 (14.7–20.4) | 1.4 | 458 | 9.9 (8.6–11.3) | 2.5 | 36.0 (30.6–41.5) | 77.4 (75.9–78.9) | 17.5 (14.7–20.4) | 90.1 (88.7–91.4) |
| Bothc | 34 | 1.5 (0.8–2.2) | 0.1 | 13 | <0.5d | —d | 71.1 (54.1–88.0) | 76.0 (74.5–77.6) | 1.5 (0.8–2.2) | ∼100 |
| Total hyperglycemia (prediabetes or undiagnosed diabetes) | ||||||||||
| HbA1c ≥5.7% (full sample)b | 243 | 4.1 (3.4–4.9) | 0.4 | 170 | 1.1 (0.9–1.3) | 0.3 | 56.2 (49.2–63.2) | 75.1 (73.9–76.3) | 4.1 (3.4–4.9) | 98.9 (98.7–99.1) |
| HbA1c ≥5.7%c | 91 | 3.8 (2.7–5.0) | 0.3 | 71 | 1.0 (0.7–1.3) | 0.2 | 55.5 (44.7–66.3) | 76.3 (74.7–77.8) | 3.8 (2.7–5.0) | 99.0 (98.7–99.3) |
| FPG ≥100 mg/dLc | 308 | 16.0 (13.4–18.6) | 1.3 | 405 | 9.2 (7.9–10.6) | 2.3 | 35.8 (30.2–41.5) | 77.1 (75.6–78.7) | 16.0 (13.4–18.6) | 90.8 (89.4–92.1) |
| Eitherc | 359 | 17.9 (15.1–20.8) | 1.5 | 461 | 10.0 (8.6–11.3) | 2.5 | 36.6 (31.2–42.0) | 77.4 (75.9–78.9) | 17.9 (15.1–20.8) | 90.0 (88.7–91.4) |
| Bothc | 40 | 1.9 (1.1–2.7) | 0.2 | 15 | <0.5d | —d | 73.6 (59.1–88.1) | 76.0 (74.5–77.6) | 1.9 (1.1–2.7) | ∼100 |
—, not estimated.
a
Estimates are based on sample of all participants ages 10 to 19, n = 19 620.
b
Estimates are based on sample of nondiabetic participants ages 10 to 19 with nonmissing HbA1c data, n = 14 119.
c
Estimates are based on participants ages 12 to 19 who attended the morning fasting examination with nonmissing HbA1c and FPG data, n = 6225.
d
Sample size was too small to estimate with precision (SE ≥30% of estimate).