Table 2. Lifetime health consequences in a cohort of 100,000 women (aged 30 years) among various screening scenarios.
| Screening strategy | Cancer cases* | Deaths* | Cancer cases averted# | Deaths averted# | Life years gained* | QALY gained* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No organized screening | 2090 (1104–3576) | 1650 (873–2824) | - | - | - | - | |
| Visual inspection with acetic acid | 3 Years | 896 (462–1639) | 530 (278–986) | 1167 (56) | 1099 (67) | 7614 (4237–13,446) | 8789 (4825–15,462) |
| 5 Years | 1210 (622–2140) | 771 (407–1400) | 851 (41) | 860 (52) | 5938 (3245–10,683) | 6770 (3670–12,216) | |
| 10 Years | 1590 (820–2740) | 1123 (586–1953) | 474 (23) | 512 (31) | 3815 (2116–6857) | 4255 (2321–7626) | |
| PAP smear | 3 Years | 998 (481–1842) | 598 (291–1115) | 1066 (51) | 1031 (62) | 7208 (3782–13,034) | 8262 (4294–15,081) |
| 5 Years | 1312 (652–2372) | 843 (415–1530) | 757 (36) | 790 (48) | 5550 (2896–10,103) | 6233 (3203–11,541) | |
| 10 Years | 1664 (859–2934) | 1182 (606–2094) | 414 (20) | 456 (28) | 3517 (1880–6385) | 3887 (2021–7189) | |
| HPV DNA test | 3 Years | 772 (392–1443) | 452 (233–864) | 1280 (61) | 1163 (70) | 8107 (4488–14,243) | 9437 (5212–16,697) |
| 5 Years | 1084 (523–1970) | 682 | 966 (46) | 932 (56) | 6470 (3550–11,607) | 7406 (4048–13,204) | |
| 10 Years | 1516 | 1054 | 559 (27) | 579 (35) | 4257 (2418–7697) | 4763 (2711–8663) | |
* Values in parenthesis represent 2.5th and 97.5th percentile,
# Figure in parenthesis indicate percentage decrease in cancer cases and deaths due to HPV 16/18 with various screening strategies as compared to the scenario of no screening; Pap: Papanicolaou test; QALY: Quality adjusted life year