|
|
cumulative number of reported infectious symptomatic cases at time t
|
|
|
cumulative number of unreported infectious symptomatic cases at time t
|
|
|
daily number of reported infectious symptomatic cases at time t
|
|
|
time-variable fraction of asymptomatic infectious cases who become reported symptomatic infectious cases |
|
|
initial fraction of asymptomatic infectious cases who become reported symptomatic infectious cases |
|
|
second value of fraction of asymptomatic infectious cases who become reported symptomatic infectious cases |
|
|
third value of fraction of asymptomatic infectious cases who become reported symptomatic infectious cases |
|
|
number of asymptomatic infectious individuals at time t
|
| I0
|
asymptomatic infectious individuals at initial time
|
|
|
time in days of application of the first public health intervention that changes the transmission rate |
|
|
time in days of application of the second public health intervention that changes the transmission rate |
|
|
time in days for application of the first public health intervention that changes the fraction of asymptomatic infectious cases that become reported symptomatic infectious cases |
|
|
time in days for application of the second public health intervention that changes the fraction of asymptomatic infectious cases that become reported symptomatic infectious cases |
|
|
total number of parameters in the estimation algorithm |
|
|
total number of measured data used in the estimation |
|
R(t) |
number of reported symptomatic infectious individuals at time t
|
| R0
|
reported symptomatic infectious individuals at initial time
|
| P |
vector of parameters under estimation (P1, P2, …, PNP) |
|
|
number of individuals susceptible to infection at time t
|
| S0
|
number of individuals susceptible to infection at initial time
|
|
|
time variable, in days |
|
|
beginning date of the epidemic, in days |
|
|
number of unreported symptomatic infectious individuals at time t
|
| U0
|
unreported symptomatic infectious individuals at initial time
|
| Y |
vector of measured data (Ym at time tm, m = 1, …, M) |
| Greek Symbols |
| 1/η |
average time in days that the symptomatic infectious cases remain with symptoms |
| 1/ν |
average time in days that the asymptomatic infectious cases remain asymptomatic |
| ν1 |
rate at which asymptomatic infectious cases become reported symptomatic infectious cases |
| ν2 |
rate at which asymptomatic infectious cases become unreported symptomatic infectious cases |
|
|
argument of the function |
|
|
argument of the function |
|
|
argument of the f(t) function |
|
|
argument of the f(t) function |
|
|
marginal probability density |
|
|
likelihood function |
|
|
posterior probability density |
|
|
prior probability density |
|
|
time-variable transmission rate |
|
|
initial amplitude of the τ(t) function |
|
|
fitting parameter in the early exponential phase of the epidemy, Equation (7a) |
|
|
fitting parameter in the early exponential phase of the epidemy, Equation (7a) |
|
|
fitting parameter in the early exponential phase of the epidemy, Equation (7a) |