Table 3.

Comparison of predicted DALYs lost from COVID-19 if the national detectable infection rate reaches 20%^*, and potential response vulnerabilities over 6 months, based on assumptions as listed

Cause	Basis of prediction	Excess DALYs lost	Notes
COVID-19	20% incidence	405,100	20% total detectable incidence nationally
HIV/AIDS	Missed new diagnoses and loss to follow-up†	475,319	Standard HIV DALYs. Missed new treatment initiation based on March 2020 vs. 2019 6-month average, and assumed 20% loss to follow-up reverting to 1990 HIV mortality rate
Malaria	WHO scenario 1‡	257,780	No ITN campaigns, continuous ITN distributions reduced by 25%
	WHO scenario 4‡	509,393	No ITN campaigns, access to effective antimalarial treatment reduced by 25%
	WHO scenario 9‡	2,427,769	No ITN campaigns, both continuous ITN distributions and access to effective antimalarial treatment reduced by 75%
Maternal mortality	March 2020 mortality rate†	31,343	March 2020 rate vs. 2019 6-month average

DALYs = disability-adjusted life years; ITN = insecticide-treated net.

^*Mortality for detectable infection rate based on incidence recorded in China,³³ and including only diagnosed and recorded infections.

^†Uganda 2020 data. See Results.

^‡WHO.^18,31