Table 2. Regression coefficients, relative risk and 95% credible interval from Bayesian spatial and non-spatial models of dengue cases in Bhutan, January 2016-June 2019.
| Model/Variable | Coeff, posterior mean (95% CrI) | RR, posterior mean (95% CrI) |
|---|---|---|
| Model I (Unstructured) | ||
| α (Intercept)a | −4.936 (−7.052, −3.481) | |
| Age (Above 14 years as base) | −0.752 (−969, −0.539) | 0.471 (0.379, 0.582) |
| Mean monthly trend | 1.023 (0.764, 1.325) | 2.782 (2.146, 3.762) |
| Rainfall lagged 2 months (mm) | 0.044 (−0.043, 0.132) | 1.036 (0.965, 1.113) |
| Relative humidity lagged 2 months (%) | 0.053 (−0.144, 0.252) | 1.004 (0.988, 1.021) |
| Maximum temperature without lag (°C) | 2.188 (1.824, 2.564) | 1.619 (1.495, 1.759) |
| NDVI lagged 1 month | −0.666 (−1.036, −0.305) | 0.514 (0.355, 0.737) |
| Probability of extra zero | 0.702 (0.641, 0.758) | 2.017 (1.898, 2.133) |
| Heterogeneitya | ||
| Unstructured | 0.112 (0.043, 0.221) | |
| Structured (trend) | 23.88 (1.101, 152.600) | |
| DIC | 1421.200 | |
| Model II (Structured) | ||
| α (Intercept)a | −4.699 (−6.413, −3.368) | |
| Age (Above 14 years as base) | −0.752 (−1.208, −0.319) | 0.472 (0.298, 0.726) |
| Mean monthly trend | 1.041 (0.541, 1.546) | 2.832 (1.717, 4.693) |
| Rainfall lagged 2 months (mm) | 0.046 (−0.134, 0.224) | 1.038 (0.897, 1.199) |
| Relative humidity lagged 2 months (%) | 0.045 (−0.351, 0.439) | 1.004 (0.972, 1.036) |
| Maximum temperature without lag (°C) | 2.254 (1.270, 3.345) | 1.644 (1.323, 2.091) |
| NDVI lagged 1 month | −0.636 (−614, 0.283) | 0.529 (0.199, 1.328) |
| Probability of extra zero | 0.704 (0.629, 0.770) | 2.022 (1.878, 2.159) |
| Heterogeneitya | ||
| Structured (spatial) | 0.044 (0.735, 39.700) | |
| Structured (trend) | 7.048 (0.018, 0.086) | |
| DIC | 1529.61 | |
| Model III (Mixed) | ||
| α (Intercept)a | −4.779 (−6.764, −3.468) | |
| Age (Above 14 years as base) | −0.753 (−0.972, −0.540) | 0.471 (0.378, 0.582) |
| Mean monthly trend | 1.023 (0.758, 1.327) | 2.782 (2.133, 3.769) |
| Rainfall lagged 2 months (mm) | 0.045 (−0.043, 0.133) | 1.037 (0.966, 1.114) |
| Relative humidity lagged 2 months (%) | 0.050 (−0.151, 0.249) | 1.004 (0.988, 1.020) |
| Maximum temperature without lag (°C) | 2.199 (1.818, 2.596) | 1.625 (1.493, 1.772) |
| NDVI lagged 1 month | −0.663 (−1.040, −0.290) | 0.515 (0.353, 0.748) |
| Probability of extra zero | 0.703 (0.642, 0.759) | 2.019 (1.900, 2.135) |
| Heterogeneitya | ||
| Unstructured | 0.126 (0.047, 0.259) | |
| Structured (spatial) | 275.700 (0.593, 1843) | |
| Structured (trend) | 38.740 (1.142, 349.500) | |
| DIC | 1423.63 |
Abbreviations: coeff: coefficients; CrI: credible interval; RR-relative risk; DIC-deviance information criterion.
aCoefficient.