Fig 7. Model fit results and extrapolation.

The left panel shows the fits in the 3 periods, clearly indicating the ability of the model to capture the dynamics. The open circles are data points not used for the fit. Due to the inherent latency of the reporting in Germany, these points are not reliable, yet. The inset shows in addition the prediction for the sum of reported cases. Without intervention the number of infections could have surpassed ten million cases by mid April. The bands around the lines indicate the 95% confidence level of the fit based on stochastic variation of the parameters (cf. Fig 2). The right plot shows the number of individuals that require hospitalization either in the low care ward (15-20% of identified cases) indicated by the blue band or ICU (2-5% of identified cases) indicated by the orange colored band.