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. 2020 Aug 17;117(35):21209–21217. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2004535117

Table 6.

Cross-validation of models presented in Tables 15 to unseen testing data

Model presented in Outcome Predictor Training data AUC (95% CI) Testing data AUC (95% CI)
Full model Baseline model Full model P value
Table 1 Social activity probability Sleepiness 0.82 (0.82 to 0.83) 0.79 (0.78 to 0.80) 0.81 (0.80 to 0.82) <0.001
Outcome Predictor Training data MSPE (RMSE) Testing data MSPE (RMSE)
Full model Baseline model Full model Improvement over baseline model, %
Table 2 Social activity duration Sleepiness 2.37 (1.54) 2.50 (1.58) 2.38 (1.54) 4.63 (2.40)
Table 3 Social activity duration Sleep duration 14.50 (3.81) 14.99 (3.87) 15.29 (3.90) −1.99 (−0.98)
Table 4 Sleepiness Social activity duration 2.53 (1.59) 2.57 (1.60) 2.43 (1.56) 5.47 (2.77)
Table 5 Sleep duration Social activity duration 4,695.91 (68.52) 5,882.18 (76.69) 5,862.28 (76.57) 0.34 (0.17)

AUC, area under the (receiver operating characteristic) curve; MSPE, mean squared prediction error; RMSE, root mean square error.