Table 2.

Marginal risk set model predicting adoption of COVID-19 policies

	Model 1	Model 2	Model 3	Model 4	Model 5
GDP per capita (log)	0.274	0.247*	0.720	0.583	0.522
	(0.230)	(0.136)	(0.743)	(0.526)	(0.412)
Tax revenue (% of GDP)	1.004	0.965	0.995	0.983	0.975
	(0.054)	(0.052)	(0.051)	(0.061)	(0.061)
GINI index (income)	0.844**	0.830**	0.816**	0.807**	0.802**
	(0.052)	(0.055)	(0.056)	(0.056)	(0.060)
Hospital beds (per 1,000 people)	0.743*	0.730*	0.753*	0.701*	0.680*
	(0.100)	(0.100)	(0.096)	(0.104)	(0.104)
Population age ≥65 (%)	0.877	0.875	0.944	0.940	0.938
	(0.089)	(0.074)	(0.087)	(0.095)	(0.084)
Urban population (%)	0.978	0.994	0.976	0.982	0.988
	(0.029)	(0.028)	(0.028)	(0.029)	(0.031)
Population density (log)	1.923***	1.938***	1.940***	2.006***	2.007***
	(0.362)	(0.329)	(0.351)	(0.312)	(0.302)
Death rate (per 100,000)	0.331			0.097+	0.087+
	(0.319)			(0.132)	(0.114)
Adoption density (OECD region)		1.302***		1.320***	0.471*
		(0.087)		(0.103)	(0.162)
Electoral democracy			0.921**	0.939*	0.882***
			(0.029)	(0.030)	(0.016)
Adoption density × electoral democracy					1.013**
					(0.004)
Observations	5,278	5,278	5,278	5,278	5,278
Number of countries	36	36	36	36	36
Number of failures	138	138	138	138	138
Pseudo-R-squared	0.103	0.126	0.129	0.158	0.166
Log likelihood	−706.5	−689.0	−686.6	−663.5	−657.0

SEs in parentheses are clustered at the country level. ***P < 0.001, **P < 0.01, *P < 0.05, + P < 0.10.